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Oil-Shocks and Directional Predictability of Macroeconomic Uncertainties of Developed Economies: Evidence from High-Frequency Data

Author

Listed:
  • Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad

    (Montpellier Business School, Montpellier, France; South Ural State University, Chelyabinsk, Russian Federation)

  • Rangan Gupta

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, 0002, South Africa)

  • Riza Demirer

    (Department of Economics and Finance, Southern Illinois University Edwardsville, Edwardsville, IL 62026-1102, USA)

  • Christian Pierdzioch

    (Department of Economics, Helmut Schmidt University, Holstenhofweg 85, P.O.B. 700822, 22008 Hamburg, Germany)

Abstract

Using high-frequency (daily) data on macroeconomic uncertainties and the partial cross-quantilogram approach, we examine the directional predictability of disentangled oil-price-shocks for the entire conditional distribution of uncertainties of five advanced economies (Canada, Euro Area, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States). Our results show that oil-demand, supply, and financial risk-related shocks can predict the future path of uncertainty; however, the predictive relationship is contingent on the initial level of macroeconomic uncertainty and the size of the shocks. Our results suggest that macroeconomic uncertainty is indeed predictable at high frequency, and that oil-price-shocks capture valuable predictive information regarding the future path of macroeconomic uncertainties.

Suggested Citation

  • Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad & Rangan Gupta & Riza Demirer & Christian Pierdzioch, 2020. "Oil-Shocks and Directional Predictability of Macroeconomic Uncertainties of Developed Economies: Evidence from High-Frequency Data," Working Papers 202031, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:pre:wpaper:202031
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    Cited by:

    1. Ngo Thai Hung & Vo Xuan Vinh, 2023. "Asymmetric impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on foreign exchange markets: Evidence from an extreme quantile approach," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 12(1), pages 20-32.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil shocks; uncertainty; partial cross-quantilograms; directional predictability; developed economies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

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