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Time Aggregation, Long-Run Money Demand and the Welfare Cost of Inflation

Author

Listed:
  • Rangan Gupta

    () (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria)

  • Josine Uwilingiye

    () (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria)

Abstract

Two recent studies have found markedly different measures of the welfare cost of inflation in South Africa, obtained through the estimation of long-run money demand relationships using cointegration and long-horizon approaches. Realizing that the monetary aggregate and the interest rate variables are available at higher frequencies than the measure of income and that long-run properties of data are unaffected under alternative methods of time aggregation, we test for the robustness of the two estimation procedures under temporal aggregation and systematic sampling. Our results indicate that the long-horizon method is more robust to alternative methods of time aggregation, and, given this the welfare cost of inflation in South Africa for an inflation target band of 3 percent to 6 percent lies between 0.15 percent and 0.41 percent.

Suggested Citation

  • Rangan Gupta & Josine Uwilingiye, 2008. "Time Aggregation, Long-Run Money Demand and the Welfare Cost of Inflation," Working Papers 200825, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:pre:wpaper:200825
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    Keywords

    Cointegration; Long-Horizon Regression; Money Demand; Time Aggregation; Welfare Cost of Inflation.;

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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