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Forecasting Mango and Citrus Production in Nigeria: A Trend analysis


  • Yusuf, Sulaiman Adesina
  • Salau, Adekunle Sheu


This paper provides the prediction of future production of citrus and mango in the medium term up to 2010. The prediction was based on the assumptions that past trends (area planted and yield) and existence of normal weather pattern will hold. Time trend model with specific emphasis on growth model was employed. The analysis delineated three different eras (period between 1961 and 2003, 1986 – 2003, and 1991-2003). These eras were used to simulate the different policy regimes of Regulation, Structural Adjustment era and Liberalization era. In general, output of citrus and mango maintained upward trend over the years. However, the growth rate was highest for the era including Structural Adjustment. Following from this, output predictions over the medium term are highest for the analysis with Structural Adjustment era.

Suggested Citation

  • Yusuf, Sulaiman Adesina & Salau, Adekunle Sheu, 2007. "Forecasting Mango and Citrus Production in Nigeria: A Trend analysis," MPRA Paper 2691, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 05 Apr 2007.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:2691

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Goodhart, C A E, et al, 1993. "New Effects in a High-Frequency Model of the Sterling-Dollar Exchange Rate," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(1), pages 1-13, Jan.-Marc.
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    3. Faust, Jon & Rogers, John H. & Wang, Shing-Yi B. & Wright, Jonathan H., 2007. "The high-frequency response of exchange rates and interest rates to macroeconomic announcements," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1051-1068, May.
    4. Pierluigi Balduzzi & Edwin J. Elton & T. Clifton Green, 1996. "Economic News and the Yield Curve: Evidence From the U.S. Treasury Market," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 96-13, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
    5. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Clara Vega, 2003. "Micro Effects of Macro Announcements: Real-Time Price Discovery in Foreign Exchange," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 38-62, March.
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    7. Kim, Suk-Joong & Sheen, Jeffrey, 2001. "Minute-by-minute dynamics of the Australian bond futures market in response to new macroeconomic information," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 117-137, April.
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    More about this item


    Mango; Citrus; Production; Yield; Prediction; Trend analysis & Nigeria;

    JEL classification:

    • Q10 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - General
    • D0 - Microeconomics - - General
    • C2 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C20 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - General

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