Un análisis de los determinantes macroeconómicos de la demanda turística en la República Dominicana: proyecciones de recuperación y medición de choques externos[An Analysis of the Macroeconomic Determinants of Tourism Demand in the Dominican Republic: Recovery Projections and Measurement of External Shocks]

This study identifies and quantifies the determinants of international tourism demand to the Dominican Republic from the United States, Canada, and the European Union over the period 2010–2019. The results are consistent with the literature on international tourism demand, showing that the long-run income elasticity is greater than 1, indicating that tourism to the Dominican Republic behaves as a luxury good for travelers from these markets. The findings also confirm that Mexico is a competitor to the Dominican Republic for North American tourists and that the real exchange rate with these countries has a negative effect on tourism demand. When projecting the effects of SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19), the estimates for the remainder of 2020 indicate a total decline in tourist arrivals ranging from 78.50% to 81.07%, consistent with scenarios developed by the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO). The decline in international tourism demand was further intensified because the pandemic coincided with the peak of the Canadian tourism high season, while the shutdown occurred just before the beginning of the high season for U.S. tourists.