L’evoluzione storica della famiglia italiana (1861-2015): mutamenti demografici, nuzialità e radici dell’instabilità coniugale[The historical evolution of the Italian family (1861-2015): demographic change, nuptiality, and the roots of marital instability]

This paper examines the secular transformation of the Italian family, highlighting the shift from an institutional and hierarchical model to an "archipelago" of liquid, fragmented, and reversible configurations. The primary objective of the research is to investigate how demographic and structural changes throughout the 20th century have paved the way for the current widespread marital instability. The methodology is based on a quantitative and qualitative analysis of ISTAT time series (1861-2015), integrating census data on household composition with marriage statistics and judicial records on separations and divorces. The findings reveal a structural change: while the number of households quadrupled over the century, their average size was halved (from 4.5 to 2.4 members), characterized by an explosion of single-person households and the near-disappearance of large families. The research highlights how the secularization of the marital bond, the increase in average age at marriage, and the transformation of the child into a rare "emotional asset" have altered spouses' bargaining power and the nature of post-separation conflict. Finally, a trend toward the privatization of family crises emerges, where the speed of consensual procedures and de-judicialization risk overlooking relational justice and the actual best interest of the child.