Trade Concentration and the Politics of Economic Development in Zimbabwe’s Post-GNU Era (2014–2020)

This paper provides an in-depth political economy of development analysis of Zimbabwe’s trade concentration between 2014 and 2020, a period corresponding to the post-Government of National Unity (GNU) era and the emergence of the so-called “New Dispensation.” Using a political economy lens, the study explores market, product, and industry concentration in trade flows, highlighting the structural weaknesses of Zimbabwe’s trade regime under the “New Dispensation.” Drawing on secondary data and descriptive analysis, the paper finds that Zimbabwe’s trade remained highly concentrated in a few products and markets, with persistent trade deficits and limited industrial diversification. The country’s trade partners are similarly concentrated, with South Africa, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and China absorbing most of Zimbabwe’s exports and supplying most imports. These trends reflect a continued dependence on primary commodity exports and a lack of structural transformation despite policy rhetoric about diversification and industrialization. The paper argues that the political economy of Zimbabwe’s post-GNU period which is characterized by elite capture, policy inconsistency, and re-engagement diplomacy has reproduced dependency and undermined developmental trade outcomes.