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Cointegration, Structural Changes and the Relationship between Trade and Economic Growth in Tunisia

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  • GUENICHI, Hassan

Abstract

This paper examines the major determinants of GDP growth in Tunisia using quarterly time series data spanning from 1960 to 2003. The Tunisian economy has been subject to a multitude of structural changes and regime shifts during the sample period. Thus, time series properties of the data are first analyzed by Zivot-Andrews (1992) model. The empirical results based on this model indicate the presence of unit roots for all of the variables under investigation. Taking into account the resulting endogenously determined structural breaks; the Saikkonen and Luetkephol (2000) and Johansen and al (2001) cointegration approach is then employed to determine the long-run drivers of economic growth. This cointegration technique accommodates potential structural breaks that could undermine the existence of a long-run relationship between GDP growth and its main determinants. Empirical estimates based on Quintos (1995) and Johansen (1993) approches indicate that in the long-term, policies aimed at promoting various types of physical investment, human capital, trade openness and technological innovations will improve economic growth.

Suggested Citation

  • GUENICHI, Hassan, 2008. "Cointegration, Structural Changes and the Relationship between Trade and Economic Growth in Tunisia," MPRA Paper 102772, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:102772
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Balassa, Bela, 1985. "Exports, policy choices, and economic growth in developing countries after the 1973 oil shock," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 23-35.
    2. van den Berg, Hendrik, 1997. "The relationship between international trade and economic growth in Mexico," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 1-21.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Structural Break; Unit Root Tests; Cointegration technique; Trade and Tunisian Economic Growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • O12 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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