IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/102772.html

Cointegration, Structural Changes and the Relationship between Trade and Economic Growth in Tunisia

Author

Listed:
  • GUENICHI, Hassan

Abstract

This paper examines the major determinants of GDP growth in Tunisia using quarterly time series data spanning from 1960 to 2003. The Tunisian economy has been subject to a multitude of structural changes and regime shifts during the sample period. Thus, time series properties of the data are first analyzed by Zivot-Andrews (1992) model. The empirical results based on this model indicate the presence of unit roots for all of the variables under investigation. Taking into account the resulting endogenously determined structural breaks; the Saikkonen and Luetkephol (2000) and Johansen and al (2001) cointegration approach is then employed to determine the long-run drivers of economic growth. This cointegration technique accommodates potential structural breaks that could undermine the existence of a long-run relationship between GDP growth and its main determinants. Empirical estimates based on Quintos (1995) and Johansen (1993) approches indicate that in the long-term, policies aimed at promoting various types of physical investment, human capital, trade openness and technological innovations will improve economic growth.

Suggested Citation

  • GUENICHI, Hassan, 2008. "Cointegration, Structural Changes and the Relationship between Trade and Economic Growth in Tunisia," MPRA Paper 102772, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:102772
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/102772/1/MPRA_paper_102772.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Balassa, Bela, 1985. "Exports, policy choices, and economic growth in developing countries after the 1973 oil shock," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 23-35.
    2. van den Berg, Hendrik, 1997. "The relationship between international trade and economic growth in Mexico," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 1-21.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Harrison, Ann & Rodríguez-Clare, Andrés, 2010. "Trade, Foreign Investment, and Industrial Policy for Developing Countries," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Dani Rodrik & Mark Rosenzweig (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 4039-4214, Elsevier.
    2. Harrison, Ann E. & Rodriguez-Clare, Andres, 2009. "Trade, Foreign Investment, and Industrial Policy," MPRA Paper 15561, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Sayef Bakari, 2017. "The Impact of Vegetables Exports on Economic Growth in Tunisia," Economic Research Guardian, Mutascu Publishing, vol. 7(2), pages 72-87, December.
    4. Ruiz Estrada, M.A., 2011. "External Sector Development Index:The Case of Chinese and ASEAN Economies," MPRA Paper 40549, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Alassane Drabo, 2011. "Agricultural primary commodity export and environmental degradation: what consequences for population's health?," CERDI Working papers halshs-00586034, HAL.
    6. Arribas, Iván & Bensassi, Sami & Tortosa-Ausina, Emili, 2020. "Trade integration in the European Union: Openness, interconnectedness, and distance," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    7. Onafowora, Olugbenga A. & Owoye, Oluwole, 1998. "Can Trade Liberalization Stimulate Economic Growth in Africa?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 497-506, March.
    8. Pahlavani, Mosayeb, 2005. "The Relationship Between Trade and Economic Growth in Iran: An Application of a New Cointegration Technique in the Presence of Structural Breaks," Economics Working Papers wp05-28, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
    9. Mohammad Al-Shboul & Aktham Maghyereh, 2023. "Did real economic uncertainty drive risk connectedness in the oil–stock nexus during the COVID-19 outbreak? A partial wavelet coherence analysis," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 12(1), pages 1-23, December.
    10. Fadzil, Atikah & Masih, Mansur, 2017. "Does export lead growth? evidence from Japan," MPRA Paper 109290, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Jones, Derek & Klinedinst, Mark & Rock, Charles, 1998. "Productive Efficiency during Transition: Evidence from Bulgarian Panel Data," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 446-464, September.
    12. Iván Arribas & Francisco Pérez & Emili Tortosa-Ausina, 2014. "The dynamics of international trade integration: 1967–2004," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(1), pages 19-41, February.
    13. Pahlavani, Mosayeb, 2005. "Analysing the Trade-GDP Nexus in Iran: A Bounds Testing Approach," Economics Working Papers wp05-25, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
    14. Fr餩ric Laurin, 2012. "Trade and regional growth in Spain: panel cointegration in a small sample," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(4), pages 435-447, February.
    15. Ramesh C Paudel, 2014. "Export performance in developing countries: A comparative perspective," Departmental Working Papers 2014-26, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
    16. Pahlavani, M., 2005. "Sources Of Economic Growth In Iran: A Cointegration Analysis In The Presence Of Structural Breaks, 1960-2003," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 5(4).
    17. Hatemi-J, Abdulnasser, 2002. "Export performance and economic growth nexus in Japan: a bootstrap approach," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 25-33, January.
    18. Amir Iqbal & Xuan Tang & Samma Faiz Rasool, 2023. "Investigating the nexus between CO2 emissions, renewable energy consumption, FDI, exports and economic growth: evidence from BRICS countries," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(3), pages 2234-2263, March.
    19. Dumitriu, Ramona & Stefanescu, Razvan & Nistor, Costel, 2010. "Exports as an engine for the economic growth: the case of Romania," MPRA Paper 36581, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Feb 2012.
    20. Epstein, Philip & Howlett, Peter & Schulze, Max-Stephan, 2007. "Trade, convergence, and globalisation: The dynamics of the international income distribution, 1950-1998," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 100-113, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • O12 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:102772. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.