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Implications of Projected Philippine Population Growth, Age Structure Change, and Aging: Using National Transfer Accounts Results

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  • Salas, J.M. Ian S.
  • Abrigo, Michael Ralph M.
  • Racelis, Rachel H.

Abstract

Philippine population is projected to grow from about 88 million in 2007 to 142 million in 2040. The projected increase in population size will be accompanied by change in the age structure: increase in the percentages of elderly and working-age populations and decrease in the percentage of young population. Increase in population size by itself will drive aggregate consumption and labor income to increase. But this paper also shows that the projected change in the population age distribution will contribute additional increase in both aggregate consumption and labor income. The age structure change can potentially lead to some favorable outcomes: slower increase in aggregate consumption of the young deficit age groups; higher increase in aggregate labor income compared to aggregate consumption overall; and higher proportion of the lifecycle "deficits" that can be covered by "surplus." Still, the projected change in population age structure also presents challenges. One major challenge comes from the projected significant increase in the number of elderly and the fast increase in their aggregate consumption that will consequently follow. The practical challenge would be finding the means to finance this group`s growing consumption in the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Salas, J.M. Ian S. & Abrigo, Michael Ralph M. & Racelis, Rachel H., 2012. "Implications of Projected Philippine Population Growth, Age Structure Change, and Aging: Using National Transfer Accounts Results," Discussion Papers DP 2012-30, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2012-30
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Salas, J.M. Ian S. & Abrigo, Michael Ralph M. & Racelis, Rachel H., 2012. "Philippines 2007 National Transfer Accounts: Consumption, Income, and Intergenerational Reallocation of Resources," Discussion Papers DP 2012-29, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    2. Arsenio M. Balisacan, 1997. "Growth and Equity in the Philippines," UP School of Economics Discussion Papers 199705, University of the Philippines School of Economics.
    3. Christopher Edmonds & Manabu Fujimura, 2005. "Relative Economic Decline and Unrealized Demographic Opportunity in the Philippines," Economics Study Area Working Papers 77, East-West Center, Economics Study Area.
    4. Rachel H. Racelis & J.M Ian S. Salas, 2007. "Measuring Economic Lifecycle and Flows across Population Age Groups : Data and Methods in the Application of the NTA in the Philippines," Development Economics Working Papers 22682, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    5. Salas, J.M. Ian S. & Abrigo, Michael Ralph M. & Racelis, Rachel H., 2012. "Philippines 2007 National Transfer Accounts: Financing Consumption and Lifecycle Deficit by Income Group," Discussion Papers DP 2012-33, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    6. Salas, J.M. Ian S. & Abrigo, Michael Ralph M. & Racelis, Rachel H., 2012. "Philippines 2007 National Transfer Accounts: Consumption, Income, and Intergenerational Reallocation of Resources - Revised Estimates," Discussion Papers DP 2012-35, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    7. repec:phd:pjdevt:pjd_2006_vol._xxxiii_nos._1and2-b is not listed on IDEAS
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    1. Salas, J.M. Ian S. & Abrigo, Michael Ralph M. & Racelis, Rachel H., 2012. "Filipino Elderly Living Arrangements, Work Activity, and Labor Income as Old-age Support," Discussion Papers DP 2012-31, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.

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    Keywords

    Philippines; National Transfer Accounts; lifecycle deficit; financing consumption; population aging;
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