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The Dynamic Welfare Costs of the 1997 Asian Crisis

Author

Listed:
  • Tatsuyoshi Miyakoshi

    () (Osaka School of International Public Policy (OSIPP), Osaka University)

  • Masakatsu Okubo

    (Graduate School of Systems and Information Engineering,University of Tsukuba)

  • Junji Shimada

    (School of Management, Aoyama Gakuin University)

Abstract

This paper has measured the welfare cost, investigated the effects of and the recovery process of the 1997 Asian crisis, and evaluated the IMF-supported programs. The paper finds: (i) the ratios of ewhole cost f to the consumption level of the hypothetical economy are large: 30% for Thailand, 50% for Indonesia, 36% for Korea, 18% for Malaysia and 39% for Hong Kong; (ii) the dynamic process of ecost at period t f quickly converges to 40% right after the crisis, but the costs for Indonesia and Hong Kong gradually increase towards 100%; (iii) the IMF-supported programs for Thailand, Indonesia and Korea have been implemented right after the cost hits peaks; (iv) the cost of the IMF-supported program was not expensive compared with the corresponding welfare cost of crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Tatsuyoshi Miyakoshi & Masakatsu Okubo & Junji Shimada, 2007. "The Dynamic Welfare Costs of the 1997 Asian Crisis," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 07-25, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics and Osaka School of International Public Policy (OSIPP).
  • Handle: RePEc:osk:wpaper:0725
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    File URL: http://www2.econ.osaka-u.ac.jp/library/global/dp/0725.pdf
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    Keywords

    dynamic welfare cost; time-varying model; 1997 Asian crisis;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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