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Population Development In The Roman Empire

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  • Rasmussen, Ulrik Vachet

Abstract

This paper addresses the problem of reconstructing the population development of the Roman Republic and the Roman Empire despite the scarcity, inconsistency, and indirect nature of the available evidence. Its primary objective is to produce a continuous population curve spanning from 508 BC to AD 395, which is internally consistent in the assumptions of underlying growth and other factors over time. To achieve this, the study critically integrates multiple methodological approaches, including Beloch’s area-and-density estimates, Lo Cascio’s revisions, and Scheidel’s demographic critiques, alongside archaeological, economic, and comparative demographic evidence. By combining these methods and cross-validating their results, a coherent framework is established for estimating both population levels and growth rates. It adopts moderate empire-wide growth assumptions, 2-3‰ annually, while allowing for significant variation between core and newly incorporated territories. This enables the interpolation between key chronological benchmarks and the extension of estimates across periods lacking direct evidence. The resulting reconstruction yields a continuous demographic trajectory showing the full consequences of the growth assumptions.

Suggested Citation

  • Rasmussen, Ulrik Vachet, 2026. "Population Development In The Roman Empire," SocArXiv ys9nu_v1, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:socarx:ys9nu_v1
    DOI: 10.31235/osf.io/ys9nu_v1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Harper, Kyle, 2016. "People, Plagues, and Prices in the Roman World: The Evidence from Egypt," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 76(3), pages 803-839, September.
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