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Enough of what? Changes in support for Chega between 2019 and 2025

Author

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  • Carvalho, João
  • Ruedin, Didier

    (University of Neuchâtel)

Abstract

In the 2025 election, the populist radical right party Chega gained 22.8 per cent of the Portuguese vote. In this article, we examine changes in support for Chega at the municipal level between 2019 and 2025. We analyse the relationship between changes in predictors and changes in the outcome to better understand the rapid rise of the party. Changes in grievances are associated with changes in votes, notably decreases in income and increases in overall crime are associated with larger increases in support for Chega. By contrast, changes in social benefits, the share of the foreign population and net migration are not associated with changes in support. We show that net of grievances, changes in turnout are strongly associated with changes in votes for Chega – evidence of a mobilization effort. Key results are robust to different specifications. Thus, we highlight the mobilization effects of populist radical right parties.

Suggested Citation

  • Carvalho, João & Ruedin, Didier, 2025. "Enough of what? Changes in support for Chega between 2019 and 2025," SocArXiv xr2dm_v1, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:socarx:xr2dm_v1
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/xr2dm_v1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Daniel Stockemer, 2016. "Structural Data on Immigration or Immigration Perceptions? What Accounts for the Electoral Success of the Radical Right in Europe?," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(4), pages 999-1016, July.
    2. José Santana-Pereira & Susana Rogeiro Nina, 2024. "The relevance and resilience of the cordon sanitaire in Portugal: the March 2024 legislative elections," South European Society and Politics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(2), pages 243-268, April.
    3. Bolet, Diane, 2020. "Local labour market competition and radical right voting: evidence from France," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 103016, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
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