Publishing infrastructures in the semi-periphery: How research assessment shapes the research output of Spain and Lithuania

National research assessment policies, designed to boost international competitiveness, have intensified “publish or perish” pressures and reshaped the global academic publishing landscape. However, the impact of these pressures on the domestic publishing infrastructures of semi-peripheral nations remains underexplored. This paper investigates how a nation’s domestic publishing infrastructure shapes whether new, high-volume open-access publishing models function as a portfolio addition or a systemic substitute. Using a comparative mixed-methods analysis of Spain and Lithuania, we combine bibliometric data from the Web of Science (2004–2024) with 28 semi-structured interviews with researchers. The findings reveal two divergent, rational strategies. In Spain, a resilient domestic publishing infrastructure, accommodated by a flexible evaluation system, allowed researchers to adopt new publishers as a pragmatic portfolio addition to an already diverse set of options. In stark contrast, Lithuanian research assessment policies actively marginalised domestic journals, creating acute strain on the country’s publishing ecosystem. Researchers in Lithuania thus adopted these same new publishing models as a systemic substitute and a survival measure. We conclude that control over a community-managed domestic publishing infrastructure is a key factor shaping the autonomy of a national academic system. It is this infrastructure that separates a strategy of dependent displacement from one of autonomous coexistence: a crucial lesson for policymakers engaged in global research assessment reforms.