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The 2010 Structural-Demographic Forecast for the 2010–2020 Decade: A Retrospective Assessment

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  • Turchin, Peter
  • Korotayev, Andrey

Abstract

This article revisits the prediction, made in 2010, that the 2010–2020 decade would likely be a period of growing instability in the United States and Western Europe (Turchin 2010). This prediction was based on a computational model that quantified in the USA such structural-demographic forces for instability as popular immiseration, intraelite competition, and state weakness prior to 2010. Using these trends as inputs, the model calculated and projected forward in time the Political Stress Index, which in the past was strongly correlated with socio-political instability. Ortmans et al. (2017) conducted a similar structural-demographic study for the United Kingdom and obtained similar results. Here we use the Cross-National Time-Series Data Archive for the US, UK, and Western European countries to assess these structural-demographic predictions. We find that such measures of socio-political instability as anti-government demonstrations and riots increased dramatically during the 2010–2020 decade in all of these countries.

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  • Turchin, Peter & Korotayev, Andrey, 2020. "The 2010 Structural-Demographic Forecast for the 2010–2020 Decade: A Retrospective Assessment," SocArXiv 7ahqn, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:socarx:7ahqn
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/7ahqn
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    1. Peter Turchin, 2012. "Dynamics of political instability in the United States, 1780–2010," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 49(4), pages 577-591, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kavanagh, Donncha & Lightfoot, Geoff & Lilley, Simon, 2021. "Are we living in a time of particularly rapid social change? And how might we know?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).

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