IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Nowcasting Patent Indicators

  • Hélène Dernis


Registered author(s):

    Indicators based on patents provide a good measure of the innovative performance and technology outputs of countries. However, because of legal rules imposed by the patent application process, information on patents is generally publicly disclosed after 18 months. Patent indicators are consequently faced with a timeliness issue, which can extend to more than five years depending on the computational method used to develop indicators. This study aims at designing simple but robust methods that would enable to "nowcast" patent indicators - forecast the present (or the recent past) - in order to mitigate the timeliness issue. The nowcasting exercise is conducted here on two separate sets of patent indicators: the number of patents applied to the European Patent Office (EPO) and the number of Triadic Patent Families (patents taken at the EPO, the Japan Patent Office (JPO) and the United States Patent and Trademarks Office (USPTO)). Portion of patent filings at the EPO were made under the Patent Cooperation Treaty (PCT). The nowcasting method developed in the present document is based on estimates of the transfer rate of patents filed under PCT into the EPO regional phase, given that information on PCT patents at international phase is disclosed before reaching the regional/national phase. This method provides robust estimates up to year t-2 (instead of year t-4), even though patenting activity of small patenting countries or emerging economies are difficult to predict, in terms of both level and growth... Prévisions des indicateurs brevets (nowcast) Les indicateurs de brevets proposent une bonne mesure de la performance des pays dans les activités d'innovation et de leurs productions technologiques. Cependant, les règles légales liées aux procédures de dépôt de brevets impliquent des délais de 18 mois avant la révélation publique du contenu des brevets. Les indicateurs brevets font par conséquent face à des problèmes de disponibilité pour les années les plus récentes. La disponibilité peut être décalée à plus de cinq ans selon les méthodes utilisées pour compiler les indicateurs. Cette étude vise à développer des méthodes d'estimations simples et néanmoins robustes, pour évaluer le présent ou le passé récent (« nowcast »), afin de pallier au problème de disponibilité des dernières années. Dans ce document, le travail d'estimation est mené sur deux ensembles d'indicateurs distincts : le nombre de demandes de brevets déposées auprès de l'Office européen des brevets (OEB) et le nombre de Familles de brevets « triadiques » (brevets pris à l'OEB, au Japan Patent Office (JPO) et à l'United States Patent and Trademarks Office (USPTO)). Une partie des demandes de brevets auprès de l'OEB se fait via le Traité de coopération en matière de brevets (PCT). La méthode de prévision mise en place ici est basée sur les taux de transfert des demandes de brevet PCT dans la phase régionale à l'OEB, le contenu des brevets PCT étant en effet rendu public lorsqu'ils sont encore en phase internationale. Cette méthode fournit alors des estimations robustes jusque l'année t-2 (au lieu de t-4). Néanmoins, l'activité récente des pays déposant un petit nombre de brevets et des économies émergentes reste difficile à prévoir, que ce soit en terme de volume comme en terme de croissance...

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    Paper provided by OECD Publishing in its series OECD Science, Technology and Industry Working Papers with number 2007/3.

    in new window

    Date of creation: 05 Oct 2007
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:oec:stiaaa:2007/3-en
    Contact details of provider: Postal:
    2 rue Andre Pascal, 75775 Paris Cedex 16

    Phone: 33-(0)-1-45 24 82 00
    Fax: 33-(0)-1-45 24 85 00
    Web page:

    More information through EDIRC

    No references listed on IDEAS
    You can help add them by filling out this form.

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oec:stiaaa:2007/3-en. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.