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An Economic Projection to 2050: The OECD "ENV-Linkages" Model Baseline


  • Jean Château


  • Cuauhtemoc Rebolledo


  • Rob Dellink



This document describes economic baseline projections to 2050 for several world regions. It describes how socio-economic drivers are used to create a consistent projection of economic activity for the coming decades, applying the general framework of “conditional convergence”. This economic baseline is created using the ENV-Linkages model version 3. This baseline is used for modelling analysis with the ENVLinkages model as carried out for the OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050 (to be released in Spring 2012). Specific attention is given in this paper to projections for the energy system as part of the economy, to allow detailed links between economic activity and environmental pressures, including emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs). Ce document décrit les projections économiques mondiales d’un scénario de référence à l’horizon 2050. Il explique comment les différents déterminants socio-économiques sont combinés entre eux pour créer une projection cohérente de l’activité économique pour les décennies à venir, sur la base d’un cadre d’analyse fondé sur la « convergence conditionnelle ». Ce scénario économique de référence est obtenu au moyen de simulations du modèle ENV-linkages (version 3). Ce compte central est utilisé comme point de référence des exercices de simulations numériques proposées dans les « Perspective de l’Environnement de l’OCDE à l’horizon 2050 » (à paraître au printemps 2012). Une attention particulière aux projections énergétiques est entreprise, dans la mesure où celles-ci sont des éléments centraux de l’interaction entre activité économique et pression sur l’environnement, au travers notamment des émissions de gaz à effets de serre.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean Château & Cuauhtemoc Rebolledo & Rob Dellink, 2011. "An Economic Projection to 2050: The OECD "ENV-Linkages" Model Baseline," OECD Environment Working Papers 41, OECD Publishing.
  • Handle: RePEc:oec:envaaa:41-en

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. de Bruin, Kelly Chloe, 2011. "Distinguishing Between Proactive (Stock) and Reactive (Flow) Adaptation," CERE Working Papers 2011:8, CERE - the Center for Environmental and Resource Economics.
    2. Enrica De Cian & Elisa Lanzi & Roberto Roson, 2007. "The Impact of Temperature Change on Energy Demand: A Dynamic Panel Analysis," Working Papers 2007.46, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    3. Enrica De Cian & Valentina Bosetti & Alessandra Sgobbi & Massimo Tavoni, 2009. "The 2008 WITCH Model: New Model Features and Baseline," Working Papers 2009.85, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    4. William R. Cline, 1992. "Economics of Global Warming, The," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 39.
    5. Francesco Bosello, 2010. "Adaptation, Mitigation and “Green” R&D to Combat Global Climate Change. Insights From an Empirical Integrated Assessment Exercise," Working Papers 2010.22, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    6. Andrea Bigano & Francesco Bosello & Giuseppe Marano, 2006. "Energy Demand and Temperature: A Dynamic Panel Analysis," Working Papers 2006.112, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    7. Valentina Bosetti & Emanuele Massetti & Massimo Tavoni, 2007. "The WITCH Model. Structure, Baseline, Solutions," Working Papers 2007.10, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
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    Cited by:

    1. Profillidis, V. & Botzoris, G., 2015. "Air passenger transport and economic activity," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 23-27.
    2. Hübler, Michael, 2015. "How Tourism Can Save Nature," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-551, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.

    More about this item


    changement climatique; climate change; general equilibrium models; long-term scenarios; modèle d'équilibre général calculable; scénarios de long-terme;

    JEL classification:

    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
    • O54 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Latin America; Caribbean
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth

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