Monitoring exposure to future climate-related hazards: Forward-looking indicator results and methods using climate scenarios

Understanding how climate-related hazards will evolve due to climate change is crucial to guide adaptation decisions. Building on OECD indicators monitoring historical exposure to climate-related hazards, this paper develops forward-looking indicators to monitor exposure of people and agriculture (cropland and livestock) to three major climate-related hazard types (extreme temperature, extreme precipitation, and drought). The methodology relies on climate multi-model ensembles covering a range of emission scenarios, from very low to very high. Results indicate that exposure to extreme temperature, precipitation, and drought is projected to worsen over the century in many countries, with considerable variation within and between countries. The presentation of indicator results in this paper focusses on 50 OECD member and partner countries but results for all countries globally are available online. Mean temperatures are projected to increase by +4.2°C across the OECD and +3.5°C in OECD partner countries by the end of the century under a high-emissions scenario. Cold and polar regions are expected to warm more than tropical and temperate regions, with faster warming at Earth’s poles. Extreme precipitation events are projected to increase in certain regions, especially Northern Europe, while prolonged hydrological drought is likely in regions such as Southern Europe and central parts of South America, under a high-emissions scenario. Projected data carry more uncertainty than historical observations due to model structure, climate scenario assumptions and natural climate variability. Further research is needed to address data gaps and model uncertainties, particularly given the growing urgency of adapting to worsening climate-related hazards.