Future long-term care expenditure trajectories across OECD countries

Public long‑term care (LTC) spending across OECD countries is projected to almost double by 2050, rising to 2.8% of GDP. This increase is driven by growing numbers of older people with care needs. Both components of LTC will expand: the health‑related share is projected to reach 1.7% of GDP, and the social‑care share 1.1% of GDP. These trends reflect estimated relationships between dependency levels, demographics, and LTC spending, based on OECD time‑series data and survey‑based measures of disability. The rise in LTC costs will occur alongside substantial growth in other age‑related expenditures. By 2050, public pension spending is expected to increase from 8.8% to 10% of GDP, while public health spending will rise from 5.5% to 8.8% of GDP. Given these predictable pressures, governments need long‑term strategies to ensure the sustainability of LTC systems. Key priorities include anticipating future demand, expanding and supporting the workforce, improving productivity, and aligning LTC reforms with broader efforts to manage rising pension and healthcare costs. Scenario analysis – covering cost pressures, healthy ageing, and productivity gains – highlights the importance of policy choices in shaping spending trajectories.