IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/oec/agraaa/59-en.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

World Wheat Price Volatility: Selected Scenario Analyses

Author

Listed:
  • Wyatt Thompson

    (University of Missouri)

  • Garry Smith

    (OECD)

  • Armelle Elasri

    (OECD)

Abstract

This study complements OECD analyses on commodity price volatility by providing quantitative assessments of the impact of two structural changes that a number of market observers have identified as contributing to world wheat market price volatility. The factors examined relate to changes in demand in the large emerging countries of the BRICs (comprising Brazil, the Russian Federation, India and China), as a result of continuing economic growth and development and the effect of a lower levels of global wheat stocks in recent years. A further scenario extends the analysis of the role of stocks in price volatility by examining some effects of a hypothetical international buffer stockholding scheme to stabilise international wheat prices. Each scenario was undertaken with the Aglink-Cosimo model and the stochastic baseline as reported in the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook, 2011-2020. The results suggest that both factors have contributed to the recorded volatility in world wheat markets in recent years. However the increase in market volatility arising from economic development and income growth is likely to occur gradually, while the moderating effect of larger stocks may only be fleeting. The stylised wheat buffer stock scheme with a price band may lead to slightly lower market volatility under highly specific conditions and constraining assumptions. These, however, have proven difficult to achieve and sustain in practice, as observed from past attempts to implement such schemes.

Suggested Citation

  • Wyatt Thompson & Garry Smith & Armelle Elasri, 2012. "World Wheat Price Volatility: Selected Scenario Analyses," OECD Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Papers 59, OECD Publishing.
    • Handle: RePEc:oec:agraaa:59-en
    DOI: 10.1787/5k8zpt62fs32-en
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1787/5k8zpt62fs32-en
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1787/5k8zpt62fs32-en?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Santeramo, Fabio Gaetano, 2017. "Market Fundamentals And International Grain Price Volatility," 2017 International Congress, August 28-September 1, 2017, Parma, Italy 260908, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    2. Fabio Gaetano Santeramo & Emilia Lamonaca, 2019. "On the drivers of global grain price volatility: an empirical investigation," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 65(1), pages 31-42.
    3. El Chami, D. & Knox, J.W. & Daccache, A. & Weatherhead, E.K., 2015. "The economics of irrigating wheat in a humid climate – A study in the East of England," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 97-108.
    4. Fabio Gaetano Santeramo & Emilia Lamonaca & Francesco Contò & Gianluca Nardone & Antonio Stasi, 2018. "Drivers of grain price volatility: a cursory critical review," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 64(8), pages 347-356.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    buffer stocks; price; scenarios; simulation; stochastic simulations; variability; volatility; wheat;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oec:agraaa:59-en. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/tdoecfr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.