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Looking-forward to Net Zero: How Agent's Expectations and Policy Choices Drive Economic Outcomes in Climate Scenarios

Author

Listed:
  • Ed Cornforth
  • Lea de greef
  • Patricia Sánchez Juanino

Abstract

This paper explores the sensitivity of the macroeconomic impacts of climate change scenarios to underlying assumptions about the policy environment and agent responses. Using the National Institute Global Econometric Model (NiGEM), we analyse the Net Zero long-term scenario developed by the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS) modifying the different assumptions related to agent expectations, monetary policy reactions, and fiscal recycling mechanisms. We assess how these options influence the economic outcomes of the transition to net zero.

Suggested Citation

  • Ed Cornforth & Lea de greef & Patricia Sánchez Juanino, "undated". "Looking-forward to Net Zero: How Agent's Expectations and Policy Choices Drive Economic Outcomes in Climate Scenarios," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 567, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:nsr:niesrd:567
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    File URL: https://niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/DP-567-Looking-Forward-to-Net-Zero.pdf?ver=m4cI9W8zOkK2HW3MbjpM
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    NiGEM; macroeconomic model; expectations; net zero scenario; NGFS; monetary policy; fiscal policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E70 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - General
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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