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The Effects of Demographic Trends on Consumption, Saving and Government Expenditures in the U.S

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  • Michael D. Hurd

Abstract

This paper reviews and analyzes forecasts of the Social Security trust funds, government spending, medical expenditures, and other elements of aggregate income and spending. According to these forecasts, the aging of the U.S. population will require some increases in taxes to support the retirement system. It should reduce the saving rate, and the composition of output will change. By themselves, these changes seem manageable. However, the direct effects of aging are completely dominated by the projected increases in medical expenditures. Although medical costs interact with aging, most of the increases are not related to aging. Even the moderately high forecast of medical spending will require that all increases in output between now and 2020 be devoted to the consumption of medical services, allowing no increase in any other component of consumption.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael D. Hurd, 1993. "The Effects of Demographic Trends on Consumption, Saving and Government Expenditures in the U.S," NBER Working Papers 4601, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:4601
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    1. Michael D. Hurd, 1992. "Wealth Depletion and Life-Cycle Consumption by the Elderly," NBER Chapters, in: Topics in the Economics of Aging, pages 135-162, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Loïc Cadiou & Julien Genet & Jean-Louis Guérin, 2002. "Évolutions démographiques et marché du travail : des liens complexes parfois contradictoires," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 355(1), pages 139-156.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination

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