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Credit Conditions and the Cyclical Behavior of Inventories: A Case Studyof the 1981-82 Recession

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  • Anil K. Kashyap
  • Owen A. Lamont
  • Jeremy C. Stein

Abstract

This paper examines micro data on U.S. firms' inventories during different macroeconomic episodes. Much of the analysis focuses on the 1981-82 recession, a recession that was apparently precipitated by tight monetary policy. We find important cross-sectional effects in this period: firms that were "bank-dependent" were much more prone to shed inventories than their non-bank-dependent counterparts. In contrast, such cross-sectional differences are largely absent during a period of "loose" monetary policy later in the 1980s. Our findings are consistent with the view that 1) there is a bank lending channel of monetary policy transmission; 2) the lending channel is likely to be particularly important in explaining inventory fluctuations during downturns.

Suggested Citation

  • Anil K. Kashyap & Owen A. Lamont & Jeremy C. Stein, 1992. "Credit Conditions and the Cyclical Behavior of Inventories: A Case Studyof the 1981-82 Recession," NBER Working Papers 4211, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:4211 Note: ME CF
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    1. Otto Eckstein & Allen Sinai, 1986. "The Mechanisms of the Business Cycle in the Postwar Era," NBER Chapters,in: The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, pages 39-122 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Takeo Hoshi & Anil Kashyap & David Scharfstein, 1991. "Corporate Structure, Liquidity, and Investment: Evidence from Japanese Industrial Groups," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 106(1), pages 33-60.
    3. Mark Gertler & R. Glenn Hubbard, 1988. "Financial factors in business fluctuations," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 33-78.
    4. Alan S. Blinder & Louis J. Maccini, 1991. "Taking Stock: A Critical Assessment of Recent Research on Inventories," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 5(1), pages 73-96, Winter.
    5. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 1990. "New Evidence on the Monetary Transmission Mechanism," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 21(1), pages 149-214.
    6. Steven M. Fazzari & R. Glenn Hubbard & Bruce C. Petersen, 1988. "Financing Constraints and Corporate Investment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 19(1), pages 141-206.
    7. Franco Modigliani, 1975. "The Monetary Mechanism and Its Interaction with Real Phenomena," NBER Chapters,in: The State Of Monetary Economics, pages 79-107 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1989. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 14-31, March.
    9. Kashyap, Anil K & Stein, Jeremy C & Wilcox, David W, 1993. "Monetary Policy and Credit Conditions: Evidence from the Composition of External Finance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(1), pages 78-98, March.
    10. James Tobin, 1987. "Financial Intermediaries," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 817, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    11. Stiglitz, Joseph E & Weiss, Andrew, 1981. "Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 393-410, June.
    12. Dwight M. Jaffee & Thomas Russell, 1976. "Imperfect Information, Uncertainty, and Credit Rationing," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 90(4), pages 651-666.
    13. Takeo Hoshi & David S. Scharfstein & Kenneth J. Singleton, 1993. "Japanese Corporate Investment and Bank of Japan Guidance of Commercial Bank Lending," NBER Chapters,in: Japanese Monetary Policy, pages 63-94 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. King, Stephen R, 1986. "Monetary Transmission: Through Bank Loans or Bank Liabilities?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 18(3), pages 290-303, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hoggarth, Glenn & Reis, Ricardo & Saporta, Victoria, 2002. "Costs of banking system instability: Some empirical evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 825-855, May.

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