IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/35529.html

Temperature Fluctuations and Economic Conditions: Evidence from Weekly U.S. Data

Author

Listed:
  • Kimberly A. Berg
  • Chadwick C. Curtis
  • Nelson C. Mark

Abstract

We study how temperature fluctuations affect U.S. state-level economic conditions using high frequency, weekly data from 1987 to 2024. The impulse response to a temperature shock from a panel local projection framework reveals a modest short-run increase in economic conditions followed by a delayed and persistent medium-run decline. Nonlinearities show that the medium-run decline is larger and more persistent at higher base temperatures. A decomposition of the economic conditions index points to the labor market as the primary channel. To interpret these findings, we develop a weekly labor search and matching model featuring a labor disutility channel, a heat damage stock, and a slow-moving adaptation mechanism.

Suggested Citation

  • Kimberly A. Berg & Chadwick C. Curtis & Nelson C. Mark, 2026. "Temperature Fluctuations and Economic Conditions: Evidence from Weekly U.S. Data," NBER Working Papers 35529, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35529
    Note: EEE EFG
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w35529.pdf
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text is generally limited to series subscribers, however if the top level domain of the client browser is in a developing country or transition economy free access is provided. More information about subscriptions and free access is available at http://www.nber.org/wwphelp.html. Free access is also available to older working papers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35529. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.