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Dynamic Individuals, Static Neighborhoods: Migration and Earnings Changes in Poor Neighborhoods

Author

Listed:
  • Andrew Garin
  • Ethan Jenkins
  • Evan E. Mast
  • Bryan A. Stuart

Abstract

This paper studies migration and earnings dynamics in poor neighborhoods using new administrative data linking residential location and earnings. Out-migration rates are higher in poor neighborhoods than elsewhere, and the majority of people who leave a poor neighborhood move to a richer one. Residents of poor neighborhoods also see significant earnings mobility, with average growth rates similar to richer areas. Estimates based on idiosyncratic, firm-specific pay changes show that increases in earnings are linked to migration to better neighborhoods. This results in the earnings of the cohort who lived in a poor neighborhood at baseline growing more than twice as fast as the earnings of these neighborhoods' contemporaneous residents. Overall, our results highlight an underappreciated reason why poor neighborhoods stay poor: initial residents whose earnings grow tend to move away.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew Garin & Ethan Jenkins & Evan E. Mast & Bryan A. Stuart, 2026. "Dynamic Individuals, Static Neighborhoods: Migration and Earnings Changes in Poor Neighborhoods," NBER Working Papers 35381, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35381
    Note: LS PE
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J30 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - General
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

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