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Before the Exodus? Young Scientists and the Future of US Science

Author

Listed:
  • Pierre Azoulay
  • Raffaella Sadun
  • Daniela Scur

Abstract

Shortly after major policy changes to US science funding began in early 2025, we surveyed 916 young biomedical scientists – PhD students and postdoctoral researchers – about their career intentions and expectations. The results document a dramatic shift in sentiment. Barely half of respondents now say they are likely to remain in academia, down 22 percentage points from how they felt six months earlier. The fraction likely to stay in the United States fell by 21 percentage points. Even satisfaction with having pursued a PhD in science declined by 16 percentage points. These are not the complaints of established scientists defending their budgets, but rather the stated intentions of the next generation – the scientists who would, in ordinary times, become the principal investigators of the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Pierre Azoulay & Raffaella Sadun & Daniela Scur, 2026. "Before the Exodus? Young Scientists and the Future of US Science," NBER Working Papers 35330, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35330
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    JEL classification:

    • I23 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Higher Education; Research Institutions
    • O32 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Management of Technological Innovation and R&D
    • O38 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Government Policy

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