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Declining Occupations and Career Outcomes in Norway

Author

Listed:
  • Erling Barth
  • Maria Forthun Hoen
  • Sari Pekkala Kerr
  • William R. Kerr

Abstract

Occupational change is a central feature of modern labor markets. This paper examines the career consequences in Norway of being initially employed in an occupation that subsequently declines during 2007–2024. Workers initially employed in occupations that later decline by at least 25% demonstrate 0.4 lower future years of work, although this employment difference is mostly explained by other individual traits. These workers, conditional on controls, experience a 4.7% reduction in future cumulative earnings relative to starting earnings, akin to losing one year’s worth of earnings over 2007–2024.

Suggested Citation

  • Erling Barth & Maria Forthun Hoen & Sari Pekkala Kerr & William R. Kerr, 2026. "Declining Occupations and Career Outcomes in Norway," NBER Working Papers 35096, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35096
    Note: LS PR
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • J62 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Job, Occupational and Intergenerational Mobility; Promotion
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

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