Riding to Opportunity: Geographic and Household Effects from the Orphan Trains

Between 1854 and 1929, roughly 200,000 “orphan train” children were sent from East Coast cities to the American West to improve their lives via environmental change. Using quasi-experimental variation in placements and digitized records linked to census observations, we estimate intention-to-treat effects and the effects of the locations and households the children subsequently chose for themselves. Assigned characteristics poorly predict adult outcomes, whereas those of self-chosen destinations and households significantly predict later adult income, with an intergenerational elasticity of about 0.13. Digitizing records for children not sent, we find by comparison that the program achieved its proximate aim of ruralization, but no evidence that it improved economic prospects. Instrumental variables estimates indicate about a 30% decline in adult income, concentrated among older children. For young adults with low barriers to movement, initial environments may matter less than the opportunities individuals actively seek in communities aligned with their capabilities and aspirations.