IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/33539.html

On the Economic Infeasibility of Personalized Medicine, and a Solution

Author

Listed:
  • Marina Chiara Garassino
  • Kunle Odunsi
  • Marciano Siniscalchi
  • Pietro Veronesi

Abstract

Technological advances and genomic sequencing opened the road to personalized medicine: specialized therapies targeted to patients displaying specific molecular alterations. For instance, targeted therapies are now available for 50% of lung cancer patients—with some alterations affecting less than 1% of patients—greatly increasing life expectancy. In an investment model of drug development, we show that current institutions mandating experimentation and approval of individual therapies eventually disincentivize investments in personalized medicine as researchers identify increasingly rare alterations. Recent AI-based technologies, such as AlphaFold3, make personalized medicine viable when regulatory approval regards the process for drug discovery rather than individual therapies.

Suggested Citation

  • Marina Chiara Garassino & Kunle Odunsi & Marciano Siniscalchi & Pietro Veronesi, 2025. "On the Economic Infeasibility of Personalized Medicine, and a Solution," NBER Working Papers 33539, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33539
    Note: AP CF EH PR
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w33539.pdf
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text is generally limited to series subscribers, however if the top level domain of the client browser is in a developing country or transition economy free access is provided. More information about subscriptions and free access is available at http://www.nber.org/wwphelp.html. Free access is also available to older working papers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Josh Abramson & Jonas Adler & Jack Dunger & Richard Evans & Tim Green & Alexander Pritzel & Olaf Ronneberger & Lindsay Willmore & Andrew J. Ballard & Joshua Bambrick & Sebastian W. Bodenstein & David , 2024. "Accurate structure prediction of biomolecular interactions with AlphaFold 3," Nature, Nature, vol. 630(8016), pages 493-500, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pantelis Livanos & Choy Kriechbaum & Sophia Remers & Arvid Herrmann & Sabine Müller, 2025. "Kinesin-12 POK2 polarization is a prerequisite for a fully functional division site and aids cell plate positioning," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-17, December.
    2. Sophie M. Travis & Jodi Kraus & Collin T. McManus & Kiana Golden & Rui Zhang & Sabine Petry, 2025. "How augmin establishes the angle of the microtubule branch site," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-15, December.
    3. Ping Yuan & Guodong Chen & Yukun Li & Xichun Liu & Shayana Saravanakumar & Jianfeng Zhao & Qianyu Ji & Hong Wang & Ying-Wu Lin & Mostafa Elbahnasawy & Nan-Ping Weng & Brian G. Pierce & Roy A. Mariuzza, 2025. "Structural insights into clonal restriction and diversity in T cell recognition of two immunodominant SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid epitopes," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-18, December.
    4. Justin Riper & Arleth O. Martinez-Claros & Lie Wang & Hannah E. Schneiderman & Sweta Maheshwari & Monica C. Pillon, 2025. "CryoEM structure of the SLFN14 endoribonuclease reveals insight into RNA binding and cleavage," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-15, December.
    5. Fenglong Jiao & Merav Braitbard & Clinton Yu & Ben Shor & Bjorn-Erik Wulff & Dina Schneidman-Duhovny & Lan Huang, 2025. "Cysteine-enabled cleavability to advance cross-linking mass spectrometry for global analysis of endogenous protein-protein interactions," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-14, December.
    6. Xin Yong & Guowen Jia & Qin Yang & Chunzhuang Zhou & Sitao Zhang & Huaqing Deng & Daniel D. Billadeau & Zhaoming Su & Da Jia, 2025. "Cryo-EM structure of the BLOC-3 complex provides insights into the pathogenesis of Hermansky-Pudlak syndrome," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-15, December.
    7. Nilmani Singh & Stephan Lane & Tianhao Yu & Jingxia Lu & Adrianna Ramos & Haiyang Cui & Huimin Zhao, 2025. "A generalized platform for artificial intelligence-powered autonomous enzyme engineering," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-13, December.
    8. Sisira Mambram Kunnath & Elad Arad & Ran Zalk & Itamar Kass & Anat Shahar & Albert Batushansky & Hanna Rapaport & Raz Jelinek, 2025. "Allosteric amyloid catalysis by coiled coil fibrils," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-14, December.
    9. Patrick J. Cunniff & Nicole Sivetz & Damianos Skopelitis & Olaf Klingbeil & Daniel Toobian & Diogo Maia-Silva & Mikala Egeblad & Christopher R. Vakoc, 2025. "KLF5 enables dichotomous lineage programs in pancreatic cancer via the AAA+ ATPase coactivators RUVBL1 and RUVBL2," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-20, December.
    10. Jinhao Que & Guangfu Xue & Tao Wang & Xiyun Jin & Zuxiang Wang & Yideng Cai & Wenyi Yang & Meng Luo & Qian Ding & Jinwei Zhang & Yilin Wang & Yuexin Yang & Fenglan Pang & Yi Hui & Zheng Wei & Jun Xion, 2025. "Identifying T cell antigen at the atomic level with graph convolutional network," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-19, December.
    11. Camille N. Lambert & Vaitea Opuu & Francesco Calvanese & Polina Pavlinova & Francesco Zamponi & Eric J. Hayden & Martin Weigt & Matteo Smerlak & Philippe Nghe, 2025. "Exploring the space of self-reproducing ribozymes using generative models," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-13, December.
    12. Sara Basse Hansen & Sergio G. Bartual & Huijie Yuan & Olawale G. Raimi & Andrii Gorelik & Andrew T. Ferenbach & Kristian Lytje & Jan Skov Pedersen & Taner Drace & Thomas Boesen & Daan M. F. Aalten, 2025. "Multi-domain O-GlcNAcase structures reveal allosteric regulatory mechanisms," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-14, December.
    13. Chongbing Liao & Qihui Liu & Gan Luo & Yinyue Luo & Dan Yao & Qingxia Wang & Jue Zhang & Yang Wu & Jialin Jin & Dan Xu & Wuyuan Lu, 2025. "Human neutrophil α-defensin HNP1 interacts with bacterial OmpA to promote Acinetobacter baumannii biofilm formation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-19, December.
    14. Qianqian Ming & Daniel Antfolk & David A. Price & Anna Manturova & Elliot Medina & Srishti Singh & Charlotte Mason & Timothy H. Tran & Keiran S. M. Smalley & Daisy W. Leung & Vincent C. Luca, 2024. "Structural basis for mouse LAG3 interactions with the MHC class II molecule I-Ab," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, December.
    15. Itxaso Anso & Samira Zouhir & Thibault Géry Sana & Petya Violinova Krasteva, 2024. "Structural basis for synthase activation and cellulose modification in the E. coli Type II Bcs secretion system," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-15, December.
    16. Junru Chen & Yan Li & Shuai Tang & Wenyu Jin & Ru Yan, 2025. "Gut microbial β-glucuronidases and their role in the microbiome-metabolite axis in colorectal cancer," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-15, December.
    17. Fei Zhang & Yuxin Peng & Dongdong Fan & Guoxu Song & Xing Gao & Yong Tian, 2025. "Engineering a CRISPR-associated IscB system for developing miniature genome-editing tools in human cells and mouse embryos," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-16, December.
    18. Jianping Kong & Wanqian Wu & Shiyue Ke & Zihan Zhou & Shenglan Xia & Jianyu Chen & Runyu Zhu & Yijia Hou & Tinashe Makanyire & Xiangru Shan & Zhuyue Zhuo & Keying Li & Hongtao Shen & Pan Yang & Pingpi, 2025. "Molecular mechanisms of CBASS phospholipase effector CapV mediated membrane disruption," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-13, December.
    19. Julian O. Streit & Sammy H. S. Chan & Saifu Daya & John Christodoulou, 2025. "Rational design of 19F NMR labelling sites to probe protein structure and interactions," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-15, December.
    20. Max S. Kloet & Chatrin Chatrin & Rishov Mukhopadhyay & Bianca D. M. van Tol & Rebecca Smith & Sarah A. Rotman & Rayman T. N. Tjokrodirijo & Kang Zhu & Andrii Gorelik & Lucy Maginn & Paul R. Elliott & , 2025. "Identification of RNF114 as ADPr-Ub reader through non-hydrolysable ubiquitinated ADP-ribose," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-14, December.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I11 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Analysis of Health Care Markets
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • O32 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Management of Technological Innovation and R&D
    • O38 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Government Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33539. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.