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Unwarranted Disparity in High-Stakes Decisions: Race Measurement and Policy Responses

Author

Listed:
  • E. Jason Baron
  • Joseph J. Doyle Jr.
  • Natalia Emanuel
  • Peter Hull
  • Joseph P. Ryan

Abstract

Studies of racial discrimination often condition on endogenous measures of race or on earlier decisions that might themselves be affected by discrimination. We develop quasi-experimental tools for estimating the impact of racial misclassification on measures of unwarranted disparity, and for designing policy responses to unwarranted disparity that account for discrimination in earlier decisions. We apply these tools to the setting of child protective services (CPS), where previous work in our context has found that Black children are placed into foster care at higher rates than white children with identical potential for future maltreatment. CPS investigators misclassify 8–9% of Black and white children relative to their self-reported race, and this misclassification obscures around 24% of unwarranted disparity in foster care placement decisions. Policies that use algorithmic recommendations to eliminate total unwarranted disparity in placement rates are also meaningfully affected by earlier discrimination in CPS call screening.

Suggested Citation

  • E. Jason Baron & Joseph J. Doyle Jr. & Natalia Emanuel & Peter Hull & Joseph P. Ryan, 2024. "Unwarranted Disparity in High-Stakes Decisions: Race Measurement and Policy Responses," NBER Working Papers 33104, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33104
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    JEL classification:

    • C26 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation
    • I31 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - General Welfare, Well-Being
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J15 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination

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