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Latent Exports: Almost Ideal Gravity and Zeros

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  • James E. Anderson
  • Penglong Zhang

Abstract

Almost Ideal gravity associates zero trade flows with variable and fixed trade cost variation in a flexible demand system. Latent trade shares between non-partners are inferred from the Tobit estimator applied to trade among 75 countries and 25 sectors in 2006. Latent Trade Bias (LTB) is the difference between the latent trade share and the as-if-frictionless trade share. Explained LTB variance decomposition shows 52% due to variation of variable trade cost, 24% due to non-homothetic income effects, and 24% due to fixed trade cost effects. Counterfactual variable (fixed) cost reductions suggest cases of successful export promotion between non-partners.

Suggested Citation

  • James E. Anderson & Penglong Zhang, 2020. "Latent Exports: Almost Ideal Gravity and Zeros," NBER Working Papers 28278, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28278
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    Cited by:

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    2. Hu, Yushan & Zhang, Penglong, 2021. "Semiparametric estimation of varying trade elasticities in gravity," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).

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    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade

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