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Cite Unseen: Theory and Evidence on the Effect of Open Access on Cites to Academic Articles Across the Quality Spectrum

Author

Listed:
  • Mark J. McCabe
  • Christopher Snyder

Abstract

Our previous paper (McCabe and Snyder 2014) contained the provocative result that, despite a positive average effect, open access reduces cites to some articles, in particular those published in lower-tier journals. We propose a model in which open access leads more readers to acquire the full text, yielding more cites from some, but fewer cites from those who would have cited the article based on superficial knowledge but who refrain once they learn that the article is a bad match. We test the theory with data for over 200,000 science articles binned by cites received during a pre-study period. Consistent with the theory, the marginal effect of open access is negative for the least-cited articles, positive for the most cited, and generally monotonic for quality levels in between. Also consistent with the theory is a magnification of these effects for articles placed on PubMed Central, one of the broadest open-access platforms, and the differential pattern of results for cites from insiders versus outsiders to the article’s field.

Suggested Citation

  • Mark J. McCabe & Christopher Snyder, 2020. "Cite Unseen: Theory and Evidence on the Effect of Open Access on Cites to Academic Articles Across the Quality Spectrum," NBER Working Papers 28128, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28128
    Note: IO LE LS PE PR
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    2. Justus Haucap & Nima Moshgbar & W. Benedikt Schmal, 2021. "The impact of the German 'DEAL' on competition in the academic publishing market," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(8), pages 2027-2049, December.
    3. Alexander Cuntz & Frank Mueller-Langer & Alessio Muscarnera & Prince C. Oguguo & Marc Scheufen, 2024. "Access to science and innovation in the developing world," WIPO Economic Research Working Papers 78, World Intellectual Property Organization - Economics and Statistics Division.
    4. W Benedikt Schmal, 2023. "The X Factor: Open Access, New Journals, and Incumbent Competitors," Working Papers of Department of Management, Strategy and Innovation, Leuven 723956, KU Leuven, Faculty of Economics and Business (FEB), Department of Management, Strategy and Innovation, Leuven.
    5. Cuntz, Alexander & Mueller-Langer, Frank & Muscarnera, Alessio & Oguguo, Prince C. & Scheufen, Marc, 2025. "Access to science and innovation in the developing world," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(3).
    6. Qianjin Zong & Zhihong Huang & Jiaru Huang, 2023. "Can open access increase LIS research’s policy impact? Using regression analysis and causal inference," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 128(8), pages 4825-4854, August.
    7. W. Benedikt Schmal, 2022. "From Rules to Regs: A Structural Topic Model of Collusion Research," Papers 2210.02957, arXiv.org.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • L17 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Open Source Products and Markets
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

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