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Unintended Consequences of Eliminating Tax Havens

Author

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  • Juan Carlos Suárez Serrato

Abstract

Eliminating firms' access to tax havens can have unintended consequences for their domestic economic activity. We study a policy that limited profit shifting by US multinationals and show it raised the tax cost of domestic investment. Firms affected by the policy responded by reducing investment and domestic employment. Firm-level responses were amplified to local labor markets through the establishment networks of profit-shifting firms. More exposed local labor markets experienced declines in employment, income, and home values and saw increases in government transfers. Policy proposals that limit profit shifting should therefore consider effects on economic activity in addition to tax revenue.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Carlos Suárez Serrato, 2018. "Unintended Consequences of Eliminating Tax Havens," NBER Working Papers 24850, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24850
    Note: PE
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Bilicka, Katarzyna & Qi, Yaxuan & Xing, Jing, 2022. "Real responses to anti-tax avoidance: Evidence from the UK Worldwide Debt Cap," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    2. Edward Fox, 2020. "Does Capital Bear the U.S. Corporate Tax After All? New Evidence from Corporate Tax Returns," Journal of Empirical Legal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 17(1), pages 71-115, March.
    3. Mr. Alexander D Klemm & Ms. Li Liu, 2019. "The Impact of Profit Shifting on Economic Activity and Tax Competition," IMF Working Papers 2019/287, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Albertus, James F. & Glover, Brent & Levine, Oliver, 2019. "Heads I win, tails you lose: Asymmetric taxes, risk taking, and innovation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 24-40.
    5. Schwab, Thomas & Todtenhaupt, Maximilian, 2021. "Thinking outside the box: The cross-border effect of tax cuts on R&D," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    6. James O’Donovan & Hannes F Wagner & Stefan Zeume, 2019. "The Value of Offshore Secrets: Evidence from the Panama Papers," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 32(11), pages 4117-4155.
    7. Hebous, Shafik & Keen, Michael, 2023. "Pareto-improving minimum corporate taxation," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    8. Tibor Hanappi & Ana Cinta González Cabral, 2022. "The impact of the international tax reforms under Pillar One and Pillar Two on MNE’s investment costs," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 29(6), pages 1495-1526, December.
    9. Klaus Gründler & Philipp Heil & Potrafke Niklas & Timo Wochner, 2023. "The Global Impact of the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act: Evidence from an International Expert Survey," EconPol Policy Reports 41, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    10. Katarzyna Bilicka, 2021. "Labor Market Consequences of Antitax Avoidance Policies," Upjohn Working Papers 21-354, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
    11. Lee, In Hyeock (Ian) & Hong, Eunsuk & Makino, Shige, 2020. "The effect of non-conventional outbound foreign direct investment (FDI) on the domestic employment of multinational enterprises (MNEs)," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 29(3).
    12. Katarzyna A. Bilicka & André Seidel, 2022. "Measuring Firm Activity from Outer Space," NBER Working Papers 29945, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Daniel Garrett & Juan Carlos Suárez Serrato, 2019. "How Elastic is the Demand for Tax Havens? Evidence from the US Possessions Corporations Tax Credit," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 109, pages 493-499, May.
    14. Thomas Tørsløv & Ludvig Wier & Gabriel Zucman, 2023. "The Missing Profits of Nations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 90(3), pages 1499-1534.
    15. Daniel G. Garrett & Eric Ohrn & Juan Carlos Suárez Serrato, 2020. "Tax Policy and Local Labor Market Behavior," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 83-100, March.
    16. Dhammika Dharmapala, 2018. "The Consequences of the TCJA's International Provisions: Lessons from Existing Research," CESifo Working Paper Series 7249, CESifo.
    17. Dominika Langenmayr & Li Liu, 2020. "Where Does Multinational Profit Go with Territorial Taxation? Evidence from the UK," CESifo Working Paper Series 8047, CESifo.
    18. Klaus Gründler & Philipp Heil & Niklas Potrafke & Timo Wochner, 2023. "The US-Inflation Reduction Act: Global Assessments of Economic Experts," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 138.
    19. Langenmayr, Dominika & Liu, Li, 2023. "Home or away? Profit shifting with territorial taxation," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    20. repec:ces:ifowps:_2020 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Katarzyna Bilicka & Danjue Clancey-Shang & Yaxuan Qi, 2024. "Long-Term Orientation and Tax Avoidance Regulations," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 17(3), pages 1-13, March.
    22. Marie-Baïanne Khder & Jérémi Montornès & Nicolas Ragache, 2020. "Irish GDP Growth in 2015: A Puzzle and Propositions for a Solution," Economie et Statistique / Economics and Statistics, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (INSEE), issue 517-518-5, pages 173-190.
    23. Andreas Baur & Clemens Fuest & David Gstrein & Philipp Heil & Niklas Potrafke & Aurel Rochell, 2023. "The Impact of the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) on the German Economy," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 137.
    24. Bilicka, Katarzyna & Clancey-Shang, Danjue & Qi, Yaxuan, 2022. "Tax avoidance regulations and stock market responses," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F23 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Multinational Firms; International Business
    • H25 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Business Taxes and Subsidies
    • H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion and Avoidance
    • H32 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Firm
    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand

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