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How Much Are Ukrainian Refugees Contributing to the Polish Economy?

Author

Listed:
  • Paweł Strzelecki

    (Narodowy Bank Polski)

  • Jakub Growiec

    (Narodowy Bank Polski)

  • Robert Wyszyński

    (Narodowy Bank Polski)

Abstract

Following the Russian military invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, a large wave of Ukrainian refugees arrived in Poland. By 2024, about 1 million Ukrainian refugees have settled in Poland, on top of about 1.5 million Ukrainians who had immigrated between 2014 and 2022, and about 0.9 million immigrants coming from other countries. In this paper we estimate the contribution of Ukrainian refugees, as well as economic migrants from Ukraine and immigrants from other source countries, to labour supply and economic growth in Poland. Using a unique survey dataset compiled at NBP, we are able to carefully account for the different socio-economic and demographic characteristics of these three distinct groups. We find that in 2021-23, immigrants contributed on average about 0.5 pp. to annual GDP growth per annum (18% of all growth), and 0.5 pp. (13% of all growth) in the preceding period 2013-21. While a significant group of pre-war Ukrainian immigrants left Poland after the Russian military invasion of their country, the contribution of labour of Ukrainian refugees alone amounted to 0.8 pp. per annum in 2021-23 (29% of all GDP growth). These contributions helped sustain economic growth in Poland despite the gradual decline in the dynamics of total factor productivity.

Suggested Citation

  • Paweł Strzelecki & Jakub Growiec & Robert Wyszyński, 2025. "How Much Are Ukrainian Refugees Contributing to the Polish Economy?," NBP Working Papers 376, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbp:nbpmis:376
    Note: The opinions expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the position of Narodowy Bank Polski.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    refugees; immigration; labour supply; economic growth; Poland; Ukraine;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration

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