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The Effects of Inflation and Demographic Change on Property Crime: A Structural Time-Series Approach


  • R. Alan Seals
  • John Nunley


This paper extends previous empirical research on the determinants of aggregate property crime rates in two dimensions. First, we examine the effect of inflation on property crime rates. Then, using a structural time-series approach we show that it is possible to estimate consistently the effects of exogenous macroeconomic variables on aggregate property crime rates without introducing endogenous deterrence to the model. Inflation is statistically significant, positive, and persistent for all property crime rates examined. We conclude that price stability contributes considerably to the reduction of property crimes.

Suggested Citation

  • R. Alan Seals & John Nunley, 2007. "The Effects of Inflation and Demographic Change on Property Crime: A Structural Time-Series Approach," Working Papers 200701, Middle Tennessee State University, Department of Economics and Finance.
  • Handle: RePEc:mts:wpaper:200701

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    Cited by:

    1. Yearwood, Douglas L. & Koinis, Gerry, 2009. "Revisting Property Crime and Economic Conditions: An Exploratory Study to Identify Predictive Indicators beyond Unemployment Rates," MPRA Paper 16834, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item


    property crime; inflation; female labor force participation; manufacturing employment; structural time series; unobserved component models;

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure

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