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Speculation Destabilisante En Regime de Change Flexible. une Approche D'equilibre General

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  • Laffargue, J.P.

Abstract

[eng] Destabilizing speculation under a flexible exchange rate system :. a general equilibrium approach . . The defenders of flexible exchange rates prétend that, under this system, the stability of the economy would be warranted by the action of speculators : in order to make profit they would purchase currencies whose prices are depreciated and sell these currencies when they have apreciated, which would contribute to a decrease of the variability of exchange rates.. We consider an argument which isolâtes the exchange market from the other parts of the economic Systems as not very convincing. The general equilibrium model which is investigated in this paper gives rather différent conclusions : the current exchange rate may depend on the rates which are being expected for the future or heve been foreseen for the present by speculators, in such a way that arbitrary anticipations! appear to the validated by reality. The co-existence of several equilibria and the perverse shapes of the demand functions of currencies, are other factors which lead us to question the wiseness of leaving the exchange rates to be freely determined on a speculator frequented market. [fre] Les partisans des changes flexibles estiment que, sous un tel régime, la stabilité de l'économie serait assurée par l'action des spéculateurs : ceux-ci, ne pouvant faire de profits qu'en achetant des devises dont le cours est déprécié pour les revendre quand il s'est apprécié, contribueraient à diminuer la variabilité des taux de change.. Une telle argumentation, considérant le marché des changes comme isolé des autres secteurs de l'économie, nous semble peu convaincante à la lumière des enseignements que nous offre l'histoire ou l'actualité. Le modèle d'équilibre général que nous présentons dans cet article, donne des conclusions bien différentes : le taux de change courant peut dépendre de ceux que les spéculateurs anticipent pour le futur ou prévoyaient pour le présent, d'une façon telle que des anticip
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Suggested Citation

  • Laffargue, J.P., 1976. "Speculation Destabilisante En Regime de Change Flexible. une Approche D'equilibre General," Cahiers de recherche 7610, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    • Handle: RePEc:mtl:montde:7610
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    1. Henri Sterdyniak & Pierre Villa & Gilles Oudiz & Vivien Lévy-Garboua, 1978. "Change, inflation et intérêt : un modèle," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 29(5), pages 866-926.
    2. Patrick Artus & Pierre Morin & Jacques Régniez & Pierre Simonet & Eric Taze-Bernard, 1979. "La flexibilité des changes : modélisation et conséquences macroéconomiques," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 37(1), pages 3-41.
    3. Jean-Pierre Laffargue, 1977. "La spéculation sur le marché des changes : définitions et paradoxes," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 28(4), pages 560-580.
    4. Williamson, John, 1973. "Another case of profitable destabilising speculation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 77-83, February.
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