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Change, inflation et intérêt : un modèle

Author

Listed:
  • Gilles Oudiz
  • Vivien Levy-Garboua

    (Mines Paris - PSL (École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris) - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres)

  • Pierre Villa

    (LG - Laboratoire des Glucides - UPJV - Université de Picardie Jules Verne - INC-CNRS - Institut de Chimie - CNRS Chimie - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Henri Sterdyniak

Abstract

[eng] Exchange rate, inflation and interest rate : a model. . The aim of this paper is to clarify the mechanisms involved in a flexible exchange rates regime for a medium size country like France and to discuss the characteristics of present economic adjustments. The paper is based on a model of an open economy which extends the the traditionnal Keynesian models of Fleming and Mundell, by including some monetarist hypotheses : price flexibility, role of anticipations and portfolio behavior in the determination of capital flows. This model does not assume as is usual the hypothesis- that the money supply is controlled by the authorities, this hypothesis being inadequate in the case of France ; this implies that, in the model, there is no equilibrium exchange rate which would guide rational expectations and that some monetary policy is needed under flexible exchange rates. Finally the supply behavior of firms is formalized in a way that differs from both the Keynesian hypothesis of monetary illusion and the monetarist analysis of the natural unemployment rate.. After having estimated the coefficients of the model for France we used it to study the impact of varions disturbances and of economic policies according to the exchange rate regime and to the mobility of capital.. This study shows the central role played by the exchange rate under flexible exchange rates, mainly as a channel of transmission of monetary policy. Because of this, it is more and more difficult to modify the level of activity without ditering prices : these two variables are more closely related under flexible exchange rates than under fixed exchange rates. This interaction implies that inflation can hardly be reduced without diminishing growth.. The main conclusion which is drawn from our simulations is that under flexible exchange rates thé economy is unstable. This is due neither to the specification of the real part of the model, nor to the hypothesis made for critical elasticities, but to the
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Suggested Citation

  • Gilles Oudiz & Vivien Levy-Garboua & Pierre Villa & Henri Sterdyniak, 1978. "Change, inflation et intérêt : un modèle," Post-Print hal-03567100, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03567100
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    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Michel Aglietta & André Orléan & Gilles Oudiz, 1980. "L'industrie française face aux contraintes de change," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 119(1), pages 35-63.
    3. Pierre-Alain Muet, 1979. "La modélisation macroéconomique : une étude de la structure et de la dynamique des modèles macroéconométriques," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 40(1), pages 3-62.
    4. Jean-Pierre Laffargue, 1979. "Spéculation déstabilisante en régime de changes flexibles : une approche d'équilibre général," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 30(4), pages 650-675.

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