Hunger-Driven Emigration: Evidence from Venezuela

This paper estimates the causal effect of food insecurity on Venezuelan emigration to Colombia using municipal-level panel data for 2010–2023. Exploiting exogenous variation in crop losses via an instrument that interacts drought intensity with 2007 agricultural production, I show that a one percentage-point increase in food insecurity raises the emigration rate by 4.2 percent on average. A 10 percent drop in crop yields increases food insecurity by 0.56 percentage points, implying a 2.4 percent rise in the emigration rate. Reduced-form evidence indicates that drought shocks mattered only after the 2014 food import collapse, showing the role of local agricultural fragility in the broader political crisis. Responses are strongest in municipalities with low crop diversity, a larger oil sector, intermediate levels of development, and a higher share of rural land. These findings provide the first causal evidence that hunger operates as a major push factor in contemporary emigration from developing countries and high-light that climate adaptation and food security policies are critical to reducing forced migration