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Shock Propagation in the Banking System with Real Economy Feedback

Author

Listed:
  • Andras Borsos

    (Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary))

  • Bence Mero

    (Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary))

Abstract

In this paper we develop a model of shock propagation in the banking system with feedback channels towards the real economy. Our framework incorporates the interactions between the network of banks (exhibiting contagion mechanisms among them) and the network of firms (transmitting shocks to each other along the supply chain) which systems are linked together via loan-contracts. Our hypothesis was, that the feedback mechanisms in these coupled networks could amplify the losses in the economy beyond the shortfalls expected when we consider the subsystems in isolation. As a test for this, we embedded the model into a liquidity stress testing framework of the Central Bank of Hungary, and our results proved the importance of the real economy feedback channel, which almost doubled the system-wide losses. To illustrate the versatility of our modeling framework, we presented two further applications for different policy purposes: (i) We elaborated a way to use the model for SIFI identification, (ii) and we showed an example of assessing the impact of shocks originated in the real economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Andras Borsos & Bence Mero, 2020. "Shock Propagation in the Banking System with Real Economy Feedback," MNB Working Papers 2020/6, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
  • Handle: RePEc:mnb:wpaper:2020/6
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    systemic risk; financial network; production network; contagion;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques

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