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Coping with the speculative attack against the forint's band

Author

Listed:
  • Gyula Barabás (ed.)

    (Magyar Nemzeti Bank)

  • Csaba Balogh

    (Magyar Nemzeti Bank)

  • Tamás Czeti

    (Magyar Nemzeti Bank)

  • Szilárd Erhart

    (Magyar Nemzeti Bank)

  • Zsolt Érsek

    (Magyar Nemzeti Bank)

  • András Kármán

    (Magyar Nemzeti Bank)

  • Gergely Kóczán

    (Magyar Nemzeti Bank)

  • Róbert Rékási

    (Magyar Nemzeti Bank)

Abstract

On 15 and 16 January 2003, an intensive speculative attack was launched against the exchange rate band of the forint. This study analyses the monetary policy decisions with regard to the antecedents of the speculation, the events of the speculative episode and the subsequent period of consolidation. The study finds that the speculative attack was irrational and unjustified in view of several considerations. Through adjustments in the policy rate and the modification of monetary instruments, the MNB was able to defend the exchange rate band of the forint. The MNB successfully localized the effects of the speculative attack on the interbank market. The MNB’s presence on the foreign exchange market facilitated the rapid and controlled withdrawal of the speculative capital, without threatening the disinflation process and the stability of the financial system. The investors taking part in the speculation incurred substantial losses, while the market developments after the speculative episode increased the banking system’s profit.

Suggested Citation

  • Gyula Barabás (ed.) & Csaba Balogh & Tamás Czeti & Szilárd Erhart & Zsolt Érsek & András Kármán & Gergely Kóczán & Róbert Rékási, 2003. "Coping with the speculative attack against the forint's band," MNB Background Studies (discontinued) 2003/3, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    • Handle: RePEc:mnb:backgr:2003/3
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    File URL: http://www.mnb.hu/letoltes/bs2003-3.pdf
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Filacek, Jan & Horvath, Roman & Skorepa, Michal, 2006. "Monetary Policy before Euro Adoption: Challenges for EU New Members," MPRA Paper 879, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Ghosh, Atish R. & Ostry, Jonathan D. & Qureshi, Mahvash S., 2018. "Taming the Tide of Capital Flows: A Policy Guide," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262037165, December.
    3. Ghosh, Atish R. & Ostry, Jonathan D. & Chamon, Marcos, 2016. "Two targets, two instruments: Monetary and exchange rate policies in emerging market economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 172-196.
    4. Péter Gábriel & Klára Pintér, 2006. "The effect of the MNB’s communication on financial markets," MNB Working Papers 2006/9, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    financial markets; speculative attack; exchange rate; speculative episode.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes

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