Educational and Labour Market Consequences of Adolescent ADHD: Evidence from Australian Administrative Data

Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) is the most common mental health condition among children and adolescents, with diagnosis rates rising sharply over the past two decades. We examine the impact of adolescent ADHD on early adulthood outcomes using whole-of-population administrative data from Australia and two complementary identification strategies: sibling fixed effects and neighbour fixed effects. ADHD is identified through prescription records, capturing moderate-to-severe cases, and models account for a range of comorbid health conditions. Adolescents with ADHD are 12-16 percentage points less likely to be enrolled in tertiary education and 5-6 percentage points more likely to receive unemployment payments at age 20 compared to similar peers. These economic penalties are larger than those for other common conditions, including anxiety/mood and psychotic disorders. Relative reductions in tertiary enrolment are similar for males and females. Additional analyses show that comorbid mental health conditions do not meaningfully exacerbate the disadvantage associated with ADHD. Our findings highlight the substantial and enduring costs of ADHD for young people, even among those receiving treatment, and underscore the need for greater investment in school-based supports and transitional services.