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Sind die Probleme der Bevölkerungsalterung durch eine höhere Geburtenrate lösbar?

  • Axel Börsch-Supan

    ()

  • Alexander Ludwig

    ()

  • Joachim Winter

    ()

    (Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA))

Hilft eine höhere Geburtenrate, die Folgen der Alterung zu dämpfen? Die Ergebnisse der Wirtschaftstheorie sind keinesfalls eindeutig, auch wenn die Idee – „Wenn wir zu viele Alte haben, brauchen wir mehr Kinder, um dies wieder auszugleichen“ – plausibel erscheint. Auch die vorliegende quantitative Studie, die auf einem makroökonomischen Simulationsmodell für Deutschland basiert, kommt zu einem differenzierten Ergebnis: Eine langfristige Stärkung des Bruttonationaleinkommens pro Kopf entsteht durch eine höhere Geburtenrate nur dann, wenn die zusätzlich geborenen Kinder auch besser ausgebildet werden. Entscheidend für ein langfristiges Wachstum ist daher das zukünftige Humankapital. Darüber hinaus ist die Dauer der Übergangszeit, nach deren Ablauf sich eine höhere Geburtenrate in mehr und besser ausgebildeten Erwerbstätigen niederschlägt, die in die Renten- und anderen Sozialversicherungskassen einzahlen können, sehr lang. Von daher haben weitere Reformen unserer Sozialversicherungen nach wie vor höchste Priorität, da nur sie die sozialpolitischen Probleme einer alternden Babyboomgeneration kurz- und mittelfristig lösen können.

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Paper provided by Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy in its series MEA discussion paper series with number 02025.

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Date of creation: 24 Oct 2002
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Handle: RePEc:mea:meawpa:02025
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  1. Axel Boersch-Supan & Florian Heiss & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2003. "Pension Reform, Capital Markets and the Rate of Return," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 4(2), pages 151-181, 05.
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  7. Paul A. Samuelson, 1958. "An Exact Consumption-Loan Model of Interest with or without the Social Contrivance of Money," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66, pages 467.
  8. David N. Weil, 1999. "Population Growth, Dependency, and Consumption," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 251-255, May.
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  10. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
  11. Axel Börsch-Supan & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2002. "Aging and International Capital Flows," MEA discussion paper series 02010, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
  12. Mariacristina De Nardi & Selahattin Imrohoroglu & Thomas J. Sargent, 1999. "Projected U.S. Demographics and Social Security," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(3), pages 575-615, July.
  13. Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Kent Smetters & Jan Walliser, 2001. "Finding a Way Out of America's Demographic Dilemma," NBER Working Papers 8258, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  15. Paul M Romer, 1999. "Increasing Returns and Long-Run Growth," Levine's Working Paper Archive 2232, David K. Levine.
  16. Robert Tamura, 2000. "Growth, fertility and human capital: A survey," Spanish Economic Review, Springer, vol. 2(3), pages 183-229.
  17. Georg Hirte, 2002. "Welfare and Macroeconomic Effects of the German Pension Acts of 1992 and 1999: A Dynamic CGE Study," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 3(1), pages 81-106, 02.
  18. Hurd, Michael D, 1989. "Mortality Risk and Bequests," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(4), pages 779-813, July.
  19. repec:mea:ivswpa:605 is not listed on IDEAS
  20. David Altig, 2001. "Simulating Fundamental Tax Reform in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(3), pages 574-595, June.
  21. David E. BLOOM & Jocelyn E. FINLAY, 2009. "Demographic Change and Economic Growth in Asia," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 4(1), pages 45-64.
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