Student Enrolment and Faculty Recruitment in Ontario: The Double Cohort, the Baby Boom Echo, and the Aging of University Faculty
Two demographic events will have significant effects on the Ontario university system this decade. The first is the growth in the population of student age, which will increase the demand on the system. That increase is associated with the baby boom echo, but it will be exacerbated by the so-called "double cohort" (which will see two classes of secondary school graduates enter university in the same year) and by the trend towards higher enrolment rates. The second event the retirement of faculty hired in the late 1960s and the 1970s to meet the demands associated with the baby boom itself will reduce the supply of services that the university system can provide.. The purpose of this paper is to attach some numbers to these two effects and, in particular, to anticipate the need to recruit new faculty. The projections suggest that the minimum need for net recruitment of faculty by the end of this decade is equal to at least half of the current complement, and it may be considerably more.
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