The Impact of Natural Disasters on Migration Attitudes

Climate change has intensified the frequency and severity of natural disasters, making it increasingly important to understand their broader consequences on social and political outcomes. This paper examines the interplay between natural disasters, measured by the number of total affected individuals, and their attitudes toward immigrants, exploring whether such a shock can lead to increased solidarity or heightened resentment toward immigrants. We use a setting in which we compare Eurozone regions with non-Eurozone regions, thus exploiting the differential degree of integration across countries and the role of joint immigration policies. Linking data from the International Disaster Database (EM-DAT) and the European Social Survey (ESS), we associate disaster-affected individuals with their perceptions on various immigration issues and dimensions. We employ a difference-in-differences approach with staggered treatment adoption, where the first difference compares Eurozone and non-Eurozone countries, and the second difference accounts for the timing of being affected by a disaster. Our main findings indicate that natural disaster shocks in Eurozone countries are associated with more positive attitudes toward immigrants, particularly regarding their acceptance and perceived economic contribution. These effects emerge gradually after the shock, suggesting that disasters may foster longer-term social reflection rather than immediate solidarity responses. A plausible explanation is that Eurozone countries, being more economically and institutionally integrated, experience such shocks within a framework of shared responsibility and interdependence. In the presence of a common currency and coordinated fiscal mechanisms, these countries may also be better shielded from the economic fallout of disasters, reducing the sense of economic insecurity that can fuel exclusionary attitudes. By contrast, non-Eurozone regions facing more severe and unbuffered economic consequences may respond in more inward-looking ways, emphasizing national over collective concerns. Heterogeneity tests further highlight the critical role of factors in propagating the effect, such as remittances paid, trade in services, unemployment, wage and salaried workers, and EU funding measures.