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Forecasting Macedonian business cycle turning points using Qual VAR model

Author

Listed:
  • Magdalena Petrovska

    (National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia)

  • Aneta Krstevska

    (National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia)

  • Nikola Naumovski

    (National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia)

Abstract

This paper aims to assess the usefulness of leading indicators in business cycle research and forecast. Initially we test the predictive power of the ESI within a static probit model as a leading indicator, commonly perceived to be able to provide a reliable summary of the current economic conditions. We further proceed by analyzing how well an extended set of indicators performs in forecasting turning points of the Macedonian business cycle by employing the Qual VAR approach of Dueker (2005). In continuation, we evaluate the quality of the selected indicators in pseudo-out-of-sample context. The results show that the use of survey-based indicators as a complement to macroeconomic data work satisfactory well in capturing the business cycle developments in Macedonia.

Suggested Citation

  • Magdalena Petrovska & Aneta Krstevska & Nikola Naumovski, 2016. "Forecasting Macedonian business cycle turning points using Qual VAR model," Working Papers 2016-05, National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia.
    • Handle: RePEc:mae:wpaper:2016-05
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    File URL: http://www.nbrm.mk/WBStorage/Files/WebBuilder_Qual_VAR_model.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Dimitar EFTIMOSKI, 2019. "Improving Short-Term Forecasting of Macedonian GDP: Comparing the Factor Model with the Macroeconomic Structural Equation Model," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 32-53, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Forecasting; Business cycle turning points; Qual VAR; MCMC; Latent variable;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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