IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/liu/liucec/33.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The dynamic of the public debt. An analysis of the italian case, 1980-1996

Author

Listed:
  • Angelo Marano

Abstract

The paper focuses on the determinants of the public debt/GDP ratio and analyses the conditions that guarantee the long run sustainability and the reduction of such ratio. Then discusses the dynamic of the Italian public debt in the last fifteen years and evaluate the size of the correction on the primary deficit needed. In spite of the primary deficits, the dynamic of the debt does not constitute a heavy problem until 1985, due to both the low starting level of the debt/GDP ratio and the low interest rates. During the period 1986-1991 the debt starts rising too much because the primary deficits are not anymore compensate by a positive differential between the rates of growth and interest. From 1992 a new rise in the real interest rates and a decrease in the rate of growth make the debt grow even faster. Its dynamic is brought back under control only thanks to the attainement of very big primary surpluses in 1995 and 1996. This, however, opens the door to the risk that this strategy may worsen the recession.

Suggested Citation

  • Angelo Marano, 1996. "The dynamic of the public debt. An analysis of the italian case, 1980-1996," LIUC Papers in Economics 33, Cattaneo University (LIUC).
    • Handle: RePEc:liu:liucec:33
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://biblio.liuc.it/liucpap/pdf/33.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wilcox, David W, 1989. "The Sustainability of Government Deficits: Implications of the Present-Value Borrowing Constraint," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 21(3), pages 291-306, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Andreea Stoian & Rui Henrique Alves, 2012. "Can EU high indebted countries manage to fulfill fiscal sustainability? Some evidence from the solvency constraint," FEP Working Papers 464, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    2. Onel, Gulcan & Utkulu, Utku, 2006. "Modeling the long-run sustainability of Turkish external debt with structural changes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 669-682, July.
    3. Anton Velinov, 2014. "Assessing the Sustainability of Government Debt: On the Different States of the Debt/GDP Process," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1359, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    4. Pierre ALDAMA & Jérôme Creel, 2017. "Fiscal policy in the US : Ricardian after all ?," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2017-23, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    5. Mohammad Mahbubur Rahma, 2017. "Budget Deficit Sustainability of Bangladesh," Asian Development Policy Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 5(2), pages 120-130, June.
    6. Borgersen, Trond-Arne & King, Roswitha M., 2014. "Structural origins of debt-sustainability in mature and transition economies: Domar, Balassa–Samuelson and Maastricht," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 101-119.
    7. Terézia Vančová, 2019. "The Excess Smoothness and Sensitivity of Consumption in the V4 Countries," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 67(6), pages 1653-1663.
    8. Neaime, Simon, 2015. "Sustainability of budget deficits and public debts in selected European Union countries," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 1-21.
    9. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/4718gto3ar8s3r4k307p0bvbcs is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Pierre Aldama & Jérôme Creel, 2016. "Why fiscal regimes matter for fiscal sustainability analysis: an application to France," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03459336, HAL.
    11. Noppadol Buranathanung & Chaipat Poonpatpibul, 2003. "External Debt Dynamics and Current Account Sustainability," Working Papers 2003-10, Monetary Policy Group, Bank of Thailand.
    12. Ismet GOCER & Mehmet MERCAN, 2016. "Which country after Greece? Sustainability of budget deficits in selected EU countries: A panel cointegration analysis with multiple structural breaks under cross-section dependence," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(3(608), A), pages 205-220, Autumn.
    13. Viviane Luporini, 2014. "Sustainability Of Brazilian Fiscalpolicy, Once Again: Corrective Policy Response Over Time," Anais do XL Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 40th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 064, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    14. Philip Arestis & Andrea Cipollini & Bassam Fattouh, 2004. "Threshold Effects in the U.S. Budget Deficit," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 42(2), pages 214-222, April.
    15. Yoshida, Motonori, 2023. "Chronological changes of government sectors’ fiscal policies and fiscal sustainability in Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    16. Goswami , Gour Gobinda & Hossain, Mohammad Mashnun, 2013. "From Judgmental Projection to Time Series Forecast: Does it Alter the Debt Sustainability Analysis of Bangladesh?," Bangladesh Development Studies, Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS), vol. 36(3), pages 1-41, September.
    17. Shruti SHASTRI & A.K. GIRI & Geetilaxmi MOHAPATRA, 2017. "An empirical assessment of fiscal sustainability for selected South Asian economies," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(1(610), S), pages 163-178, Spring.
    18. Kazakova, Maria & Nesterova, Kristina, 2015. "Long-Term Forecast of the Main Parameters of the Budgetary System of Russia," Published Papers 2309, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    19. Moreira, Tito Belchior S., 2011. "Brazil: an empirical study on fiscal policy transmission," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), April.
    20. International Monetary Fund, 2004. "Fiscal Policy and Debt Sustainability: Cardoso's Brazil, 1995-2002," IMF Working Papers 2004/156, International Monetary Fund.
    21. Hyejin Ko, 2020. "Measuring fiscal sustainability in the welfare state: fiscal space as fiscal sustainability," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 531-554, May.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:liu:liucec:33. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Laura Ballestra (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/liuccit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.