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Para Politikasi Beklentilerinin Sermaye Piyasalari Üzerindeki Etkisi

Listed author(s):
  • Selva Demiralp


    (Koc University)

  • Kamil Yilmaz


    (Koc University)

Bu calismada TCMB para politikasi ile ilgili beklentilerin sermaye piyasalari uzerindeki etkisi incelenmektedir. Etkin piyasa hipotezinin (“efficient market hypothesis”) gecerli olmasi durumunda merkez bankasi tarafindan yapilan faiz karari aciklamasini takiben sermaye piyasalarinin sadece beklenmeyen politika kararlarina tepki vermesi beklenir. Cunku beklenen politika kararina toplanti oncesinde gerekli tepkinin verilmis olmasi gerekir. 2002-2009 tarihleri arasinda Turkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankasi beklenti anketlerinden para politikasi beklentilerini ölcmek sureti ile yaptigimiz analizde elde ettigimiz sonuclar gosterge faiz oraninin agirlikli olarak etkin piyasa hipotezi dogrultusunda degiþtigini, hisse senedi piyasalarinda ise belli zaman araliklarinda etkin piyasa hipotezinin calistigini gostermektedir. Elde edilen sonuclarin belli bir anket tipine hassasiyet gosterip gostermedigi 2005 sonrasi donem icin incelenmistir.

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Paper provided by Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum in its series Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers with number 1008.

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Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2010
Handle: RePEc:koc:wpaper:1008
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