Total Fertility Rates and Urban Agglomeration in Asia

This study examines the relationship between total fertility rates and urban agglomeration in Asia through a comparative descriptive analysis of subnational data from Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Thailand. Against the backdrop of a nationwide decline in fertility, the study asks whether low fertility is systematically associated with population density within Asian countries and region, rather than constituting a national-level demographic outcome solely. The empirical analysis is based on explanatory spatial data analysis, combining maps of population density and total fertility rates. The empirical analysis finds that, within each country examined, fertility tends to be lower in denser and more urbanized areas, particularly in major metropolitan areas such as Tokyo, Seoul, Taipei, Ho Chi Minh City, Jakarta, and Bangkok. Although the strength and dispersion of the relationship vary across national contexts, a broadly similar negative density–fertility gradient is observed throughout Asia. These findings suggest that low fertility in Asia should be understood not only as a demographic transition, but also as a spatial phenomenon closely associated with urban concentration.