IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/kob/dpaper/dp2026-14.html

Total Fertility Rates and Urban Agglomeration in Asia

Author

Listed:
  • Keisuke Kondo

    (Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry and Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University, JAPAN)

Abstract

This study examines the relationship between total fertility rates and urban agglomeration in Asia through a comparative descriptive analysis of subnational data from Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Thailand. Against the backdrop of a nationwide decline in fertility, the study asks whether low fertility is systematically associated with population density within Asian countries and region, rather than constituting a national-level demographic outcome solely. The empirical analysis is based on explanatory spatial data analysis, combining maps of population density and total fertility rates. The empirical analysis finds that, within each country examined, fertility tends to be lower in denser and more urbanized areas, particularly in major metropolitan areas such as Tokyo, Seoul, Taipei, Ho Chi Minh City, Jakarta, and Bangkok. Although the strength and dispersion of the relationship vary across national contexts, a broadly similar negative density–fertility gradient is observed throughout Asia. These findings suggest that low fertility in Asia should be understood not only as a demographic transition, but also as a spatial phenomenon closely associated with urban concentration.

Suggested Citation

  • Keisuke Kondo, 2026. "Total Fertility Rates and Urban Agglomeration in Asia," Discussion Paper Series DP2026-14, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.
    • Handle: RePEc:kob:dpaper:dp2026-14
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.rieb.kobe-u.ac.jp/academic/ra/dp/English/DP2026-14.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2026
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Keisuke Kondo, 2019. "Does agglomeration discourage fertility? Evidence from the Japanese General Social Survey 2000–2010," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(3), pages 677-704.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Xiaoyin Li & John V. Winters, 2024. "Fertility divergence across large and small areas," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(2), June.
    2. Hiroshi Goto & Keiya Minamimura, 2019. "Geography and Demography: New Economic Geography With Endogenous Fertility," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 70(4), pages 537-568, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kob:dpaper:dp2026-14. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Office of Promoting Research Collaboration, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/rikobjp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.