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The “Missing Nobelsâ€

Author

Listed:
  • Agarwal, Ruchir

    (Harvard University)

  • Angeli, Deivis

    (Global Talent Lab)

  • Gaule, Patrick

    (University of Bristol)

Abstract

Prestigious prizes can shape scientists' career decisions, effort allocation, and field entry, yet the structure of recognition has not kept pace with modern discovery. We screen roughly 2{,}700 international scientific prizes and rank the 99 most prestigious using an index of expert survey ratings, demand for prize information, media news mentions, prize money, and longevity. Three patterns stand out. First, half of today's top prizes were first given after 1980 and one-third after 2000, showing new awards can rise to prominence. Second, recognition is unevenly distributed across fields: physics, life sciences, and mathematics are heavily recognized relative to field size, while computer science, engineering, psychology, and the social sciences are under-served. Third, incentive design is narrow: only three of the top 99 prizes target early-career scientists, and most lack mechanisms to promote future research. These findings inform the design of recognition systems that better align with contemporary science.

Suggested Citation

  • Agarwal, Ruchir & Angeli, Deivis & Gaule, Patrick, 2026. "The “Missing Nobelsâ€," IZA Discussion Papers 18578, IZA Network @ LISER.
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18578
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • O31 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity

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