Where You Arrive Matters: Local Conditions and Migration Duration. Evidence from Italian Registry Data

This paper examines temporary migration and return decisions among immigrants in Italy using a novel administrative dataset covering 3.7 million foreign-born individuals between 2011 and 2022. By reconstructing individual migration histories, we estimate migration duration using parametric survival models, quantile regressions for interval-censored data, competing risk models, and a split cure model that distinguishes permanent settlement from the timing of exit. Results show that out-migration is concentrated in the first five years after arrival, while most migrants remain in Italy over the 12-year observation window. Age and gender matter, but local conditions within Italy strongly shape migration duration. Higher local incomes are associated with longer stays, while higher rental prices accelerate departures. Regional disparities also matter independently of economic variables: migrants in the South and Islands remain significantly longer than those in the North. These findings show that heterogeneity within host countries, rather than national averages alone, shapes migration trajectories and highlights the importance of local labor markets and living conditions.