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Abstract
The purpose of this paper is to analyze the evolution and sustainability of the public debt in the Eurozone and in the most important Eurozone countries (Spain, Italy, Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Germany, France, the Netherlands and Finland) during the period between 2001 and 2018 through the traditional accounting approach of accumulation of the debt/GDP ratio. This approach, in addition to quantify the effect of those determinants that have influence over the debt performance, will make possible the assess of the debt sustainability in terms of a State's ability to achieve primary surpluses, if necessary, according to changes in the interest-growth differential.The financial crisis that began in 2008 finished with the global bearish trend of the ratio of debt. Primary deficits began to manifest, there was a major recession in the countries of the European Union and the funding costs increased, what caused important increases in the levels of the debt ratio up to the point of putting in risk its own sustainability. El presente trabajo tiene por objeto analizar la evolución y la sostenibilidad de la deuda pública en la Eurozona y en los países más relevantes de la misma (España, Italia, Grecia, Portugal, Irlanda, Alemania, Francia, Holanda y Finlandia) durante el periodo 2001-2018 a través del enfoque tradicional contable de acumulación de la ratio de deuda/PIB. Este enfoque, además de permitir cuantificar el efecto de los determinantes que inciden en el comportamiento de la deuda, permitirá evaluar la sostenibilidad de la misma, en términos de la capacidad de un Estado para conseguir superávits primarios, en caso de que fuera necesario, acordes a los cambios acontecidos en el diferencial interés-crecimiento. La crisis financiera que comenzó en 2008 acabó con la tendencia global bajista de la ratio de deuda. Los déficits primarios comenzaron a manifestarse, se produjo una gran recesión en los países de la Unión Europea y los costes de financiación aumentaron, lo que desembocó en importantes aumentos de los niveles de la ratio de deuda hasta el punto de poner en riesgo su propia sostenibilidad.
Suggested Citation
Manuel Carlos Hernández Recio & Pedro Atienza Montero, 2018.
"Evolución de la deuda pública en los países de la Zona Euro. Determinantes y sostenibilidad de la misma,"
Working Papers. Serie EC
2018-01, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
Handle:
RePEc:ivi:wpasec:2018-01
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JEL classification:
- H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
- H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
- H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt
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