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Corn Ethanol Growth in the US Without Adverse Foreign Land Use Change: Defining Limits and Devising Policies

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  • Gallagher, Paul W.

Abstract

This study addresses the question: ‘How does a 15 billion gallon per year renewable fuel standard (RFS) compare to the capacity of the US corn market to generate necessary input supplies for the ethanol industry?' The analysis accounts for adjustments in world corn and soybean markets, including corn technology improvements (yield increases) that allow substantial production growth on the existing corn area, and byproduct (DDG) replacement of displaced corn-feed demand. Our midpoint estimate suggests that increased production on foreign lands only accounts for a small fraction (6%) of the RFS demand expansion. Further, corn yield response to moderate price increases would likely offset much of the foreign production increase. US policies that could sever any remaining link between US ethanol expansion and environmentally sensitive regions of the world feed economy are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Gallagher, Paul W., 2010. "Corn Ethanol Growth in the US Without Adverse Foreign Land Use Change: Defining Limits and Devising Policies," Staff General Research Papers Archive 31350, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:isu:genres:31350
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    Cited by:

    1. Gallagher, Paul W. & Richey, Jeremiah, 2012. "Growing Biomass Fuel Industry, Declining Local Forage Demands, and Changing Greenhouse Gas Emmissions from U.S. Agriculture: A Case Study," Staff General Research Papers Archive 35012, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    2. Gbadebo Oladosu & Siwa Msangi, 2013. "Biofuel-Food Market Interactions: A Review of Modeling Approaches and Findings," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 3(1), pages 1-19, February.
    3. Oladosu, Gbadebo & Kline, Keith, 2013. "A dynamic simulation of the ILUC effects of biofuel use in the USA," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1127-1139.

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